#稳定币发展 Seeing the new trends in the stablecoin sector, I have some thoughts I want to share with you.
From Circle's USDCx incorporating privacy dimensions, to the gradual launch of fiat-pegged stablecoins in Malaysia, Brazil, and other regions, and the intensive introduction of new varieties by major exchanges—this reflects the inevitable trend of stablecoins moving from "concept" to "infrastructure." However, I want to remind you that the seemingly bustling expansion of the sector requires ordinary investors to remain clear-headed.
Stablecoins do have their value, especially as a tool fo

#比特币持有 After watching the sharing of this senior Wall Street professional, I have some thoughts to express.
The horse racing story he told actually reveals the essence of investing - we are all making decisions based on incomplete information. The key is not to win every race, but to place bets according to our risk tolerance when the odds are in our favor.
Regarding Bitcoin, my view is quite restrained. Not because I am conservative, but because the volatility of such assets requires us to honestly face several questions: How long is your investment horizon? Do you have plans to use this mon

#美联储政策 Recently, I have been following the movements of the Fed, and I feel that the market is undergoing a subtle shift. The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to 4.209%, and behind this seemingly ordinary number lies much to ponder.
At this Fed meeting, the interest rate cut is already a done deal, but the real issue has emerged — the internal divisions within the committee are greater than expected. Among the 12 voting members, 5 opposed further easing, which is quite rare in recent years. Seeing such policy divergence, I am reminded of an insight I have had over the years:

#现货比特币ETF Seeing BlackRock methodically roll out the encryption asset ETF matrix, from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and then to stake products, my feeling is - this is not speculation, but institutions are systematically completing asset allocation through actual actions.
But there is a detail worth stopping to think about: the acceleration of institutional layout is precisely the time when ordinary investors should be more cautious. It’s not that they shouldn’t participate, but rather that the way to participate is very important. I have seen too many people rush to go all in just because they see "

#美联储降息 Upon seeing this report, I recalled an experience of a fren. Last year, when there were strong expectations for interest rate cuts, he poured most of his funds into risk assets all at once. As a result, although his short-term accounts looked good, when market fluctuations arrived, he realized he had no room to maneuver.
The news of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates sounds positive, but the truth behind this data is more worth paying attention to. The unemployment rate is falling, consumer credit card debt has exceeded 1.2 trillion, and the average interest rate is over 20%—t

#宏观经济影响 Recently, I have read quite a few analyses on the restructuring of the Fed's power, and I have been repeatedly thinking about a question: What should we do with the assets we hold when the underlying rules of the monetary system are being rewritten?
To be honest, this macro change is much more complicated than it appears on the surface. The Trump team is gradually shifting the powers that originally belonged to the Fed over to the Treasury Department—it's not just as simple as changing the chairman, but rather a redistribution of the entire monetary pricing system. The control

#美联储政策分析 I recently came across an interesting survey data and would like to share my thoughts with everyone.
The issue of the Federal Reserve Chair's candidate appears to be about policy expectations on the surface, but essentially reflects the market's anxiety about "independence." 84% expect Hasset to take office, but only 11% support him—this significant gap is worth pondering. 76% of respondents are concerned that the new Chair may be more inclined to cut interest rates, and even half believe that decisions may be influenced by political pressure.
This matter serves as a reminder

#美联储降息 Seeing the expectation of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this week, I recalled a recent conversation with several investor frens. Everyone was discussing what the rate cut means, but I found that many people's focus was a bit off — frequently fixating on each 0.25% change can easily lead to being trapped by the mindset influenced by short-term fluctuations.
Both Barclays and Deutsche Bank's analyses point to the same signal: the threshold for interest rate cuts next year will be very high. This means we have entered a new phase—from "cuts will continue" to "

#比特币价格分析 Seeing Bernstein's analysis, I thought of recent conversations with a few frens. Some are panicking at Bitcoin's 30% pullback, but if you look at the data calmly, the funds flowing out through ETFs are less than 5%. What does this indicate? It indicates that institutional funds that understand long-term allocation are holding firm, while panic selling mainly comes from participants in short-term fluctuations.
This is what I have been emphasizing all along - the key to breaking the deadlock often lies not in the price itself, but in your understanding of the cycle. Bitcoin has

#Binance Alpha项目 Midnight(NIGHT) The airdrop has reopened, and I've seen quite a few frens discussing it over the past couple of days. I'd like to remind everyone of a few points from the perspective of asset security.
First of all, it is important to verify information from official channels before participating in any Airdrop activities. This NIGHT Airdrop has been delayed and reopened, which tests our execution and patience—do not rush to act due to the psychology of "loss and recovery"; instead, we should be more cautious.
Regarding the participation threshold, you need to hold 23

#空投与代币分配 I saw the Airdrop news from RaveDAO, and many frens are asking whether to participate. I want to share an observation - Airdrops are indeed a low-threshold way to get in touch with new projects, but this actually requires us to be more cautious.
Participating in an Airdrop itself is not a problem; the issue lies in how to handle it afterward. I have seen too many people fantasizing after receiving tokens, treating the Airdrop as a "free opportunity to get rich." In reality, Airdrop tokens need to be evaluated seriously just like assets purchased with one's own money.
My suggestio

#Polymarket预测市场 I noticed that the probability of Stable's first day FDV exceeding $2 billion on Polymarket has surged to 85%, which reminds me of a few new coin cases I've come across recently. The data from such prediction markets can indeed reflect market sentiment, but I want to remind everyone that a high probability does not equal high returns; sometimes, it's quite the opposite.
New coins often come with volatility and risk, especially on the first day. I have seen too many cases where people are attracted by high expectations but find themselves unprepared amid insufficien

#美联储货币政策 Seeing the expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates, I want to share an observation with everyone. The improvement in liquidity may indeed bring a short-term market reaction, but this is precisely when we need to remain calm.
Friends who experienced several rounds of liquidity changes last year should have a sense of this - behind every "general rise", there is often a rapid warming of emotions. I have seen many people suddenly increase their positions during such periods, only to be unable to bear the market's adjustment.
True long-term gains are never achieved by betting

#美国经济与货币政策 The probability of a rate cut in December on Polymarket has reached 93%, and the market expectations are very clear. But I want to remind everyone not to be misled by such high probability numbers.
While interest rate cuts may indeed boost the prices of certain assets, what we really need to consider is: what does this imply? Why is the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates? How is the economic fundamental? More crucially, the 68% probability of no interest rate cuts in January actually suggests that a policy shift may not be so smooth.
I have always emphasized position managemen

#美联储降息 I've noticed that the recent discussions about the Fed lowering interest rates have become increasingly lively, and I'd like to share some observations with everyone.
The interest rate cut is almost a certainty, and this news has excited many people, but I noticed a more noteworthy detail—the internal divisions within the Fed are widening. Among the 12 voting members, 5 oppose or express doubts about further easing of policies, a situation that has been rare since 1990. This is not a bad thing; rather, it reflects what the real market environment is like.
Many people have a con

#美联储利率决议 Several institutions predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and market sentiment has become lively again. However, I want to remind everyone that the signals behind this rate cut may be more worth following than the rate cut itself.
Barclays and Deutsche Bank both emphasize one detail: the threshold for interest rate cuts next year will be very high, and it may even be early 2026 before further cuts could occur. In other words, this may be the last rate cut this year. This "last rate cut" often tends to provoke an overly optimistic reaction from th

#加密货币抵押品应用 After reviewing last night's market information, there are several phenomena worth stopping to think about.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are fluctuating up and down. I've noticed that many people are chasing longs and shorts, resulting in crazy losses—this actually reflects an old problem: rushing to participate in volatility without proper position management. The CFTC has approved ETH, BTC, and USDC as collateral for the derivatives market, which seems like good news, but there's a hidden danger to be cautious of: when crypto assets are heavily used as collateral, once market vo

#银行接入加密服务 Seeing that the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has confirmed that banks can engage in encryption asset trading, many people may feel that this is a Favourable Information signal. I want to remind everyone to see the essence of this matter clearly - banks are merely acting as a middleman, conducting transactions in a way that involves no-risk principal, in other words, they are just facilitating the buyers and sellers, without holding any encryption assets themselves.
The implementation of this policy indeed signifies that encryption assets have entered a more regulat

#稳定币风险与合规 Seeing Stripe and Paradigm open the Tempo Blockchain, my first reaction was not excitement, but rather a desire to seriously discuss a question with everyone.
Stablecoins indeed have real demand in the payment sector, and the entry of traditional financial institutions like UBS and Deutsche Bank also indicates that compliance exploration is advancing. However, I want to remind you that no matter how beautiful the technical solutions are or how low the transaction costs may be, one fundamental fact remains unchanged - stablecoins themselves still carry risks.
The risks do not lie in

#钱包社交转型 Seeing the transformation of Farcaster over the past five years, I have some feelings. From the "Decentralization Twitter dream" to today's wallet-first strategy, this is not a failure, but an honest dialogue—both with the market and with oneself.
Data speaks volumes. In early 2024, reaching 100,000 daily active users seemed glorious, but three months later it dropped to 60,000, and by October this year, monthly revenue plummeted by 99%. This is not a random fluctuation, but a structural signal. As I look at these numbers, I think that many people invested money because they belie