# Polymarket预测市场

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop from 10% to 8% brings a familiar feeling. This is not the first time the market has experienced an emotional reversal at a key price level.
I remember during the 2017 cycle, as Bitcoin approached $20,000, the optimistic sentiment on prediction tools gradually faded. First it was a firm inevitability, then it turned into a probability game, and finally into a low-probability event. The data itself is honest—it records the true expectations of participants at that moment.
From December 21st's 10% to the 23rd'

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing Polymarket's move, my thoughts drifted back to those years. The ICO boom in 2017, the frenzy of DeFi Summer in 2020, and now the reshuffling in the L2 track—each wave of ecosystem self-reinvention is accompanied by a questioning of "infrastructure."
Polymarket's decision to migrate out of Polygon to push its own L2 appears to be a technical upgrade on the surface, but fundamentally reflects a repeatedly validated rule: when a platform's transaction volume surpasses a certain threshold, the tolerance for underlying infrastructure faults sharply increases. The December Po

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the surge in prediction markets, I have a few heartfelt words to share. Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company, Crypto.com hiring quantitative traders, Kalshi integrating with BSC—on the surface, it looks like a hot track, but I smell a familiar scent behind these news.
Remember the DeFi Summer a few years ago? The same story: exchanges piling up their layouts, funding rounds increasing, and then? Most projects became tools for harvesting profits from retail investors. Prediction markets are likely to follow this path.
Now, there are a few points to be especially cauti

#Polymarket预测市场 I recently came across Kalshi's research report, and it truly opened my eyes! Using data to speak is the most convincing—prediction markets are actually 40% more accurate than the Wall Street consensus on inflation forecasts, and during severe economic fluctuations, they can even surpass 67%.
The logic behind this is actually quite simple: when you combine economic incentives with market mechanisms and gather diverse information from thousands of participants worldwide, it naturally forms "collective intelligence." Everyone is motivated to make the most accurate judgments beca

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the news that Kalshi is integrating with BSC, I have to calmly pour cold water on it. Prediction markets sound great—directly trading the outcomes of real-world events, which seems like the ultimate value discovery mechanism. But that’s precisely where pitfalls are easy to fall into.
I’ve seen too many people attracted by promotions like "best liquidity, most direct." The problem is: the more participants in the prediction market, the greater the manipulation space for big players. What you’re trading isn’t real value, but a game of information asymmetry. Institutions h

#Polymarket预测市场 Recently studying prediction markets, I realized from Coinbase CEO's remarks how important the regulatory issues of platforms like Polymarket are🤔
I used to think prediction markets were just for casual play, but I found out they fall under the regulation of the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission). Brian Armstrong seems to be saying that prediction markets should be regulated by the CFTC, and if some states claim they are not under CFTC jurisdiction, it might actually limit US users' access to these useful tools.
This has been quite enlightening for a newcomer li

With #Polymarket预测市场 regulatory positioning clarified, this marks a turning point for prediction markets like Polymarket. The Coinbase CEO's statement is actually a reassurance to the market—CFTC regulation rather than state-level oversight means rules will be more unified and clearer, but it also implies stricter requirements.
From a copy-trading perspective, this is an observation window. Traders in prediction markets have a completely different style from traditional futures traders; their decision-making chains are shorter, and their information response is faster. Once the regulatory fra

#Polymarket预测市场 The probability of BTC hitting 100,000 has dropped from 10% to 8%? 🔴 The speed of this market sentiment shift is incredible. The forecast for 95,000 has actually fallen from 32% to 25%, and the risk of dropping below 80,000 is increasing... indicating that big players are quietly reducing their positions.
Polymarket's data is a thermometer of market sentiment. The recent data changes are not a good sign. It's the end of the year, and the market is starting to find reasons to dump. The fundamentals haven't changed, but expectations are reversing. Be cautious when bottom fishin

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop from 10% to 8%, I am reminded of many investment stories I've encountered over the years. What is the market telling us with these numbers? When everyone is discussing the possibility of getting rich quickly, the real risks are often overlooked.
Prediction markets reflect the collective judgment of participants, but this judgment itself is constantly changing. The adjustment from 32% to 25% indicates that market sentiment is quietly shifting toward caution — which is actually a good signal, reminding us to

#Polymarket预测市场 Recently, I saw Bitcoin's prediction probabilities on Polymarket, and I was a bit shocked. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year has dropped from 10% to 8%, and the forecast of $95,000 has also decreased from 32% to 25%... What does this mean?
As someone new to the scene, I’m a bit confused. How are these probabilities calculated on Polymarket? Does it mean more and more people in the market are becoming bearish about the future trend? The numbers seem to fluctuate, which must reflect real changes in market sentiment behind the scenes. Interestingly, the proba