#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop from 10% to 8%, I am reminded of many investment stories I've encountered over the years. What is the market telling us with these numbers? When everyone is discussing the possibility of getting rich quickly, the real risks are often overlooked.

Prediction markets reflect the collective judgment of participants, but this judgment itself is constantly changing. The adjustment from 32% to 25% indicates that market sentiment is quietly shifting toward caution — which is actually a good signal, reminding us to stay alert. My simple advice: regardless of how prediction probabilities fluctuate, they should not be a reason to change your asset allocation.

What truly matters are those things that won't change just because of market sentiment — position management, risk control, and long-term mindset. If you chase in at high levels, even for that 8% chance, you might face significant drawdown pressure. But if you have a plan in place early, these fluctuations become a window into market psychology rather than signals urging you to act.

The market will always present the next enticing story, but what can truly see you through to the end is that unwavering focus on safety and respect for time. Protect your principal, and let compound interest do what it’s supposed to do — this may be more meaningful than chasing any percentage.