#Polymarket预测市场 Recently, I saw Bitcoin's prediction probabilities on Polymarket, and I was a bit shocked. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year has dropped from 10% to 8%, and the forecast of $95,000 has also decreased from 32% to 25%... What does this mean?

As someone new to the scene, I’m a bit confused. How are these probabilities calculated on Polymarket? Does it mean more and more people in the market are becoming bearish about the future trend? The numbers seem to fluctuate, which must reflect real changes in market sentiment behind the scenes. Interestingly, the probability of falling below $80,000 has increased from 18% to 15%. Is this a slightly positive signal?

Can any experts explain the logic behind prediction markets? Are these probability fluctuations similar to voting—meaning, the more people bet on a certain direction, the more the probability shifts? It feels like this kind of data can be quite useful for short-term market analysis, but I still can’t quite grasp it. Is there a beginner-friendly way to interpret this? 🤔