#美联储政策分析 I recently came across an interesting survey data and would like to share my thoughts with everyone.

The issue of the Federal Reserve Chair's candidate appears to be about policy expectations on the surface, but essentially reflects the market's anxiety about "independence." 84% expect Hasset to take office, but only 11% support him—this significant gap is worth pondering. 76% of respondents are concerned that the new Chair may be more inclined to cut interest rates, and even half believe that decisions may be influenced by political pressure.

This matter serves as a reminder for us steady investors. Regardless of who is in that position, the certainty of policies is declining, which means that market volatility may increase. In such an environment, we must adhere to two principles:

First, **do not fully leverage your position**. Leaving room to respond to policy changes and market adjustments is the fundamental lesson for protecting your principal. Second, **extend your time horizon**. Short-term policy noise is difficult to predict, but in the long run, good assets will still show their value. Instead of frequently adjusting positions to guess the direction of policies, it is better to focus on the robustness of asset allocation.

The underlying logic of the capital market will not change because of a personnel change; what changes is that we need to be more cautious and patient.