#美联储降息 Seeing the expectation of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this week, I recalled a recent conversation with several investor frens. Everyone was discussing what the rate cut means, but I found that many people's focus was a bit off — frequently fixating on each 0.25% change can easily lead to being trapped by the mindset influenced by short-term fluctuations.

Both Barclays and Deutsche Bank's analyses point to the same signal: the threshold for interest rate cuts next year will be very high. This means we have entered a new phase—from "cuts will continue" to "rate cuts may come to an end." This shift in expectations often tests our psychological resilience more than the rate cuts themselves.

My experience is that what really needs to be done is not to predict what the Fed will do next, but to ask myself three questions: Is my asset allocation overly reliant on interest rate cut expectations? Does my position leave enough room for possible fluctuations? Is my investment plan based on short-term policies or long-term goals?

The end of a rate cut cycle often sees the most volatility. However, the prudent approach is to maintain restraint at this moment—review your portfolio and ensure that the balance between risk and return has not been disrupted by temporary optimism. Time will validate those decisions that withstand the test.