#美国经济与货币政策 The probability of a rate cut in December on Polymarket has reached 93%, and the market expectations are very clear. But I want to remind everyone not to be misled by such high probability numbers.

While interest rate cuts may indeed boost the prices of certain assets, what we really need to consider is: what does this imply? Why is the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates? How is the economic fundamental? More crucially, the 68% probability of no interest rate cuts in January actually suggests that a policy shift may not be so smooth.

I have always emphasized position management, not for the sake of being conservative. When the market reaches a high consensus on a certain event, it is often already fully priced in. At this time, one should ask oneself: Is my position size still reasonable? Am I overexposed to a single expectation?

It is recommended that everyone take a moment to review their asset allocation during this period. Do not blindly follow the trend of betting on interest rate cuts; leave yourself a safety cushion. The greatest test of a long-term mindset is to remain rational in the face of high-probability events, rather than being led by the numbers.

A stable asset allocation always trumps chasing short-term market emotions.