#BTC

Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Characteristics???
Why I believe the 60,000-70,000 USD level is not the bottom—the reason is simple: Bitcoin's bottom won't be a sharp V-shape, but rather a sideways consolidation zone.

2015 Bear Market Bottom
Chart 1
2018 Bear Market Bottom
Chart 2
2022 Bear Market Bottom
Chart 3

Reviewing previous cycles, we discover striking similarities.

In the late stages of bear markets, there's usually a final crash that breaks through everyone's psychological defense, followed by weakening downward momentum, market enters sideways consolidation, then kicks off a rally, ending the bear market and entering a bull market. Every bear market bottom follows this pattern.

This is actually not a coincidence—the 4-year cycle is still at work.

So there's no need to rush with bottom-fishing. The lowest point of a bear market is most likely a consolidation zone, forming an arc bottom or U-shaped bottom. Capitulation requires time.

If you're unsure about bottom-fishing, wait until after sideways consolidation for a while, then enter when the right side starts rallying. That's when you get a clear confirmation of the bottom.

How to Define Bull vs Bear Markets?
Drops in one week, rallies complete in 3 days = Bull market
Rallies in one week, crashes complete in 1 day = Bear market

So whether we're in a bull or bear market now—everyone has their own judgment!