The Solana ETF drought finally ends after 6 days, but the price rally faces immediate challenges
The price of Solana
SOLUSD
was around $79.30 on April 3, up 0.6% in the last 24 hours after its spot (ETF) recorded its first net inflow in six trading days.
An inflow of $932,850 on April 2 broke the streak of zero activity and negative momentum that had been ongoing since late March. Bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart also reinforces the potential for a price rebound.
However, exchange data shows market participants started selling as prices began to rise, a pattern that has historically weakened previous rallies. The question is whether institutional flows through the ETF can withstand the increasing selling pressure on exchanges.
Solana ETF Comeback Encounters Well-Known Divergence
Solana ETF flows turned positive on April 2 with a net inflow of $932,850, ending a six-day period that included three days of outflows totaling around $15 million and three days of no activity. The return of institutional interest, though still modest, could serve as an additional positive catalyst for the daily chart-predicted rebound.
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On the daily chart, between January 31 and April 2, Solana’s price formed a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, formed a higher low. This bullish divergence indicates waning selling momentum.
The same pattern has appeared twice before, with varying outcomes depending on ETF activity. The first confirmed divergence around March 8 preceded a 21.5% rally between March 8–16.
During that period, ETF SOL inflows were consistently positive each day, at $1.66 million, $3.92 million, $7.60 million, and $2.82 million. This institutional support helped turn the divergence into a sustained price movement.
The second confirmed divergence around March 29 only resulted in a 10% rally. From March 29 to April 1, ETF flows were mostly flat or negative, providing no institutional backing. Although technically a divergence, it lacked the strength to sustain a rally.
The latest confirmed divergence on April 2 now shows the first day of positive inflow. Whether the positive ETF trend continues or not will likely determine if this Solana rebound will resemble the 21% rally or be weaker.
Exchange Sellers Are Starting to Move
Although Solana’s ETF sent its first positive signal in nearly a week, on-chain exchange data shows the opposite. The exchange net position change, a Glassnode metric measuring net token inflows and outflows to exchange wallets, spiked sharply on April 2. The figure rose from 160,431 SOL on April 1 to 860,995 SOL on April 2, more than five times in a single day.
A positive net position change means more SOL moved into exchanges than out, typically indicating selling intent. This moment is significant because the spike coincided with the bounce triggered by RSI divergence.
Similar patterns appeared during the March 8–16 rally. During that 21% move upward, exchange net position change remained positive, indicating active selling throughout.
Despite high selling pressure, ETF buying momentum was strong enough to absorb it and push prices higher. When the rally ended and prices began to correct, exchange metrics turned negative as market participants started buying, i.e., buying at the top.
This pattern suggests that exchange traders are now selling into rebounds rather than accumulating before price increases. It could also be a strategy to sell during price strength to cut losses.
If ETF inflows remain limited, this selling pressure might cap further gains early on. But if institutional flows pick up again like in mid-March, the pressure could be absorbed by the market.
Solana Price and Support Levels $79
The daily chart now serves as a reference for key Solana price levels ahead. Currently, SOL trades at $79.30, just above the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $79.06. This level has historically been a strong support zone across various asset classes and is the most critical floor in Solana’s current price structure.
A daily close below $79 would weaken the rebound scenario and open the door to a decline toward $73.99, the 0.786 Fib level. If it drops further, $67.53 becomes the next major support.
For the divergence to turn into a meaningful rally, Solana needs to return to $82.62 at the 0.5 Fib level, followed by $86.18 at the 0.382 level. Surpassing $86 would confirm that ETF momentum is stronger than exchange selling pressure and could target $90, representing about a 14% increase from current levels. If prices continue to rise to $97.71, it would match the March 16 high.
Divergence signals technical weakness, ETF flows act as an institutional trigger, and exchange selling acts as resistance. March’s experience shows that strong ETF flows can sustain prices despite active selling. But if flows are weak, rebounds may quickly fade.
A daily close below $79 would distinguish a rebound driven by divergence from a deeper correction toward $73.99. Conversely, a return to $82.62 supported by consistent ETF inflows would indicate institutional backing and a potential rally.