International Spot Gold Annual Gains Wiped Out, Future Trend Hinges on Extent of Iran's Energy Infrastructure Damage

International spot gold continued its decline from last week at the beginning of this week, with intraday losses exceeding 4%. Today's selloff has completely erased the year's gains. Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah believes the current trend's core determinant is the trajectory of Middle East conflict and whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen. If Iran's energy facilities suffer further damage and the conflict prolongs, given the stickiness of energy prices, it could even force the Federal Reserve to shift toward rate hikes. Under this extreme scenario, gold prices could be dragged down to the $4,000 level.

In contrast to market pessimism, Saxo Bank analysts remain cautiously optimistic about gold's medium-term outlook. The bank points out that this round of shock exhibits clear stagflation characteristics: elevated inflation coupled with sluggish economic growth, leaving global central banks in a dilemma. Under such circumstances, gold's core position as a hedge against "currency depreciation" and US dollar credit risk remains solid, supported over the long term by the "de-dollarization" process and the trend of central bank reserve diversification. #Gate13周年全球庆典 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅 #特朗普向伊朗发出48小时最后通牒 #中东局势引发全球市场暴跌