#创作者冲榜 Gold plunges 525 US dollars in a single week, silver crashes nearly 16%, bigger declines may be coming

As the Middle East conflict continues and energy prices remain elevated, the market is increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures resurfacing, potentially forcing major global central banks to pause their easing cycles and adopt a longer-term wait-and-see approach.

Affected by this, gold has recently experienced significant setbacks. After breaking through the 50-day moving average, a key technical level, market sentiment has turned increasingly bearish. Multiple analysts warn that if the Middle East conflict continues to drag on and energy infrastructure suffers further damage, gold may face more pain in the short term, and the risk of falling back toward the lower end of the 4,000 US dollar range cannot be ruled out.

Gold price crashes 525 US dollars, breaks through key technical level, silver plummets nearly 16%

As the Middle East war shows no signs of ending soon, some analysts warn that gold investors should be prepared for further market declines. The reason is that rising energy prices are reigniting inflationary threats, which could force major global central banks to abandon their original easing path and instead adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance.

The gold market experienced significant technical breakdown this week. As gold prices fell below the 50-day moving average, positioned slightly below 5,000 US dollars per ounce, the market technical structure has clearly deteriorated. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, told Kitco News that Wednesday's breaking through decline and subsequent sustained selling have brought the gold market to a critical turning point.

He points out that from a price structure perspective, the 23% rebound from the February 2, 2026 low of 4,402 US dollars to the March 2 high of 5,420 US dollars now looks more like a "corrective rebound," even a typical "dead cat bounce."

This suggests that gold's next phase of movement is more likely to shift toward sustained weeks of bearish selling. From a weekly perspective, gold has cumulatively declined 525.56 US dollars this week, a decline of 10.47%, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the war broke out, gold prices have fallen more than 14%. Recent market data shows that gold prices once fell below 4,500 US dollars, while the year's high reached above 5,600 US dollars.

By contrast, silver's decline has been even more dramatic. This week's silver price is set to cumulatively drop 15.67%, marking the largest decline since the January peak-and-reversal earlier this year. Spot silver is trading at 67.889 US dollars per ounce, down 6.74% intraday!

Middle East situation and Strait of Hormuz become key variables for gold's next move

Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction almost entirely depends on how the Middle East situation evolves and whether the Strait of Hormuz can restore smooth passage, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.

Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in his latest report that while the market awaits further clarity on the Iran war, he expects gold prices may fluctuate in the 4,600 to 4,700 US dollar range in the short term, but simultaneously warns that downside risks are increasing. He points out that if energy assets suffer further damage and the war drags on longer, the ultimate result could be gold falling toward the lower end of the 4,000 US dollar per ounce range. The reason is that in such a scenario, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to consider rate hikes again due to persistently elevated energy prices.

However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean gold's long-term trend will weaken permanently. If energy infrastructure damage is limited and oil prices can quickly return to pre-war levels, then global central banks' interest in purchasing gold may be renewed, pushing gold prices back onto a trajectory of long-term trading above 5,000 US dollars.

Why hasn't gold acted like a safe-haven asset despite the war?

Despite facing obvious headwinds recently, multiple analysts remain optimistic about gold's medium and long-term prospects. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy, stated that the core logic behind investors' early-year gold purchases hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, while geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.

However, he also points out that the current market needs to first experience a round of sentiment and position correction. In other words, investors need to first "cool down from their infatuation," and then may reignite enthusiasm for gold. For those still bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst phase has passed before they can more confidently re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason why gold has failed to display traditional safe-haven strength in a war environment is the reinflation threat posed by rising energy prices.

The core of current market trading is no longer just the geopolitical conflict itself, but rather how the conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.

Central banks on full watch, but markets have rapidly withdrawn rate-cut bets!

Over the past week, major global central banks have almost universally maintained interest rates unchanged and collectively entered a relatively neutral "watchful waiting mode" to observe how much impact the war will have on inflation expectations. Haworth points out that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for various central banks, especially as companies begin adjusting budget expectations before summer, policymakers will gain clearer visibility on whether the energy shock will substantively impact business decisions and pricing behavior.

However, the market clearly lacks such patience. Investors have already begun rapidly withdrawing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Thu Lan Nguyen, head of foreign exchange and commodities research at Commerzbank, stated that in the United States, not even a single complete rate cut by year-end has been sufficiently priced into the market. Back at the end of February, the market widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.5 times. She points out that following recent Federal Reserve meetings, rate-cut expectations have been further weakened, mainly because Fed Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and clearly stated that if future signs show inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will not be under consideration.

Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and elevating long-term inflation expectations, gold prices are very likely to continue facing downward pressure.

Gold's long-term bull market may not necessarily have ended, but short-term consolidation needs confirmation

Although a hawkish Federal Reserve stance typically pressures gold by pushing up bond yields and the dollar, some analysts believe that long-term opportunities for gold haven't disappeared. Senior market analyst Michael Brown stated that if central banks become overly focused on inflation and continue tightening policies in a recessionary environment, this itself could constitute a serious policy error. He points out that monetary policy's effectiveness against supply-driven inflation is inherently limited; the only thing central banks can usually do is slow economic growth by suppressing demand.

Therefore, against the backdrop of high uncertainty regarding the duration and economic impact of the Iran conflict, central banks adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy is actually the most logical approach. However, if major central banks ultimately do make the policy mistake of "austerity in recession," gold may still perform well over a longer horizon, as investors will then seek tools to hedge against economic downside risks.

Brown stated that he doesn't believe the gold bull market has ended, but at the current stage, the market needs to first experience a round of adequate consolidation before having stronger reasons to strengthen confidence in "buying the dips."