Gold Monday: Watch More, Move Less, Await Directional Breakthrough

News
Fed Policy Weighs Overhead: This Thursday (March 19), the Fed decision + dot plot arrives. The market prices in a 99%+ probability of maintaining rates in March, with the first rate cut delayed to June. The US dollar index holds firmly above 99, and the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.25%, suppressing gold holding costs with notable short-term long liquidation. Middle East tensions have not escalated for now, oil prices remain elevated but haven't triggered new risk-off; this week focuses on US CPI and retail sales, with stronger data further reinforcing hawkish expectations.

Technical
Daily consecutive decline, short-term bearish bias but dense buying interest around 5000 level, RSI approaching oversold, difficult to see one-sided sharp decline.

Support: 5000/4980
Resistance: 5050/5080/5100
Structure: Trading within 5000-5100 oscillation range, breakout will open new direction

Risk Warning: Fed hawkish surprise and USD strength suppress gold prices; geopolitical escalation or inflation weakness will trigger rapid rebound.