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你可以使用比特幣增長的斜率来建立隐马尔可夫模型(HMM),以識別和預測三種狀態:看漲、轉變和看跌。在初步測試中,這種方法可以以約90%的準確率對狀態進行分類。
以下是一個Veritasium視頻的鏈接,解釋隐馬爾可夫模型如何工作,以及為什麼它們是預測問題的強大工具。
隐馬爾可夫模型在量化金融中被廣泛使用;值得注意的是,據報導,這種技術的變體曾被吉姆·西蒙斯的獎章基金採用,該基金是歷史上最成功的交易策略之一。