川普关税新政搅动全球市场，黄金白银创新高美债承压

On January 13 local time, global markets presented volatile trends under the combined influence of multiple political and economic factors. Among these, tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction have become the key focus for investors. The US ten-year Treasury yield came under pressure amid policy uncertainty, while metal commodities performed strongly.

Geopolitical tensions escalate, dollar weakens as gold surges

The Middle East situation continues to evolve, with Iran stating that hundreds of people have died in recent events. In response, the Trump administration took a tough stance, announcing that any country conducting business with Iran will face 25% tariffs on all trade with the United States. This policy took effect immediately, deepening market concerns about uncertainty in US foreign trade policy.

Against this backdrop, “sell dollar” trades have once again become the market focus. The dollar index fell 0.25% to 98.8, while the US ten-year Treasury yield rose modestly to 4.18% (up 2 basis points from the previous trading day), but overall came under pressure. Safe-haven assets performed exceptionally, with gold surging 1.97% to $4,597.9 per ounce, hitting a record high. WTI crude oil rose 1.8% to $59.8 per barrel, posting three consecutive days of gains.

In the foreign exchange market, USD/JPY rose 0.14%, while EUR/USD advanced 0.26%.

US stocks rally across the board, tech stocks lead with Google’s market cap breaking $4 trillion

Despite early session pressure from policy uncertainty, US stocks ultimately rebounded. The Dow Jones Index rose 0.17%, the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.16% to 6,977 points, and the Nasdaq Index gained 0.26% to 23,733 points.

Tech stocks and retail stocks were the main drivers. Notably, Alphabet, Google’s parent company, historically surpassed a $4 trillion market capitalization, with strong stock performance. Reports indicate that Apple’s AI-powered voice assistant Siri will use Google’s Gemini as its foundational model, further reinforcing market recognition of Google’s position in the AI sector.

Tesla rose 0.89%, Apple gained 0.34%, and Nvidia edged up 0.03%.

Meanwhile, Trump announced that if credit card issuers fail to limit credit card interest rates to 10% or below (for a one-year period) as required, it would be unlawful. This remark triggered a sell-off in financial stocks, with American Express and Capital One declining 4.2% and 6.4% respectively, JPMorgan Chase falling 1.4%, and Citigroup dropping 3%.

Chinese stocks rally strongly, AI development becomes investment focus

The prospects for China’s artificial intelligence technology development have attracted international investor attention. Alibaba American Depositary Shares (ADS) surged 10.2% at Monday’s close to $166.31, marking the largest gain since August 29. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, reflecting overall Chinese stocks’ performance, rose sharply 4.26% to 8,023 points, while KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) gained 5.1%.

Investors are widely focusing on whether China can achieve breakthroughs in the next-generation AI technology roadmap, which has also boosted valuation expectations for related Chinese stocks.

Crypto market rallies in tandem, Bitcoin and Ethereum show divergent performance

The cryptocurrency market shows increased correlation with traditional stock markets. Bitcoin’s latest real-time price is $96.75K, with a 24-hour gain of 1.97%. Ethereum is quoted at $3.36K, up 1.86% in 24 hours.

In contrast, the previously mentioned Bitcoin’s 24-hour gain of 0.29% and Ethereum’s decline of 0.9% have been adjusted, with the latest data showing crypto assets overall trending upward.

European stocks show mixed performance, Hong Kong stock index futures rise slightly

European stock markets are mixed, with Germany’s DAX 30 Index rising 0.57%, France’s CAC 40 Index declining marginally by 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 Index gaining 0.16%.

In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index night session futures closed at 26,994 points, up 397 points from the previous close, showing a premium of 386 points on contract, with 21,535 lots traded. The China Index night session futures closed at 9,365 points, showing a premium of 145 points.

Policy uncertainty intensifies, Federal Reserve independence questioned

The US Department of Justice’s investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell has triggered deep market concerns about the Fed’s independence. Powell stated this reflects challenges to the Fed’s autonomous decision-making. More than 10 economic policy figures, including former Fed Chairs Yellen, Greenspan, and Bernanke, have jointly voiced their support, emphasizing that Fed independence is crucial to economic stability.

This joint statement was signed by former Treasury Secretaries Paulson, Geithner, Rubin, and Lew, as well as economists Robert Haubrich, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Bernstein. The statement notes that Federal Reserve independence is a necessary condition for achieving price stability, full employment, and moderate long-term interest rates.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated to Trump on Sunday evening that investigations targeting the Fed chair could produce negative market impacts, believing Powell will leave when the president appoints a new chair. However, this scenario has changed at this stage, with Powell’s stance instead turning firmer.

Tariff policy triggers Supreme Court scrutiny, Trump issues warning

Trump posted on social media Monday that if the Supreme Court makes a tariff ruling unfavorable to the United States for any reason, America will face compensation in the hundreds of billions of dollars. He further emphasized this does not include compensation for the government and related companies investing in factory construction to avoid paying tariffs. When these amounts are accumulated, it will reach trillions of dollars, Trump stated, which would lead to consequences the nation cannot bear.

He warned that if the Supreme Court rules against the United States on this critical issue regarding national security and wealth policy, America will face severe difficulties.

Yen expected to appreciate gradually, Fitch outlook on 2026 exchange rate

International rating agency Fitch released a foreign exchange market monitoring report, predicting the yen will appreciate moderately in 2026 but remains at historically weak levels. After a volatile 2025, the yen’s nominal and real trade-weighted exchange rates at year-end are both near historic lows.

In the first half of last year, as the dollar weakened, the yen appreciated accordingly. However, since the second half, despite persistent inflation, Japanese authorities maintained interest rates unchanged, causing the yen’s nominal trade-weighted exchange rate to depreciate approximately 13% from mid-April to year-end.

Fitch believes the 160 USD/JPY exchange rate remains a level of focus for Japanese authorities. As monetary policy normalizes while other major central banks cut or maintain rates, the yen has some appreciation potential. The report anticipates the yen will appreciate approximately 6% against the dollar this year.

Hedge fund magnate bullish on inflation target adjustment, Ackman proposes pension reform

Renowned hedge fund figure Bill Ackman (Bill Ackman) pointed out that America returning to a 2% inflation target represents an “unrealistic” expectation. He predicts the Federal Reserve will abandon that target, shifting instead to setting inflation targets between 2.5% and 3%.

Speaking at UBS’s annual Asian Wealth Forum, Ackman expressed reservations about market’s widespread expectation that the Fed will cut rates several more times. While artificial intelligence as a productivity tool helps lower costs, it is insufficient to bring rates back to past low levels.

Ackman also recommended the United States establish a mandatory occupational superannuation retirement savings plan similar to Australia’s, allowing employers and employees to save into diversified investment portfolios, enhancing wealth accumulation for all citizens. He stated he has proposed this suggestion to Trump, and the president indicated support for the plan, believing it can be achieved.

Meta invests heavily in AI computing infrastructure, data center investment becomes focal point

Meta Chief Executive Zuckerberg announced the launch of a strategic plan called Meta Compute, aiming to build computing infrastructure with a scale of tens of gigawatts within this decade, with plans to further expand to hundreds of gigawatts in the future.

The plan is co-led by Meta’s global infrastructure head Santosh Janardhan and Daniel Gross, working closely with newly appointed President and Vice Chair Dina Powell McCormick. Janardhan continues to oversee Meta’s technology architecture, software stack, chip plans, and global data center operations, while Gross leads a newly established task force focused on long-term capacity strategy and vendor collaboration.

Following lukewarm market reception for the Llama 4 model, Meta continues investing to maintain its position in Silicon Valley’s AI race, committing to $72 billion in capital expenditure in 2025.

Data center investment prospects broad, Moody’s predicts over $3 trillion investment in five years

Moody’s latest report predicts that over $3 trillion will be invested in data center-related fields in the next five years, with these funds relying on credit market support across multiple sectors. The report indicates that trillions of dollars will be used for servers, computing equipment, data center facilities, and increased electrical capacity to support AI and cloud computing development.

The report shows most funds will come directly from large technology companies. Six US hyperscale cloud service providers—Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Meta, and CoreWeave—are expected to spend $500 billion on data center investments this year. Banks will continue to play an “important role” in financing; given the massive scale of required funds, other institutional investors will increasingly participate in lending.

Market observation highlights this week

• Japan November trade balance data
• US December NFIB small business confidence index
• US December unadjusted CPI year-over-year
• US October new home sales, annualized
• Federal Reserve Governor Musalem speech
• EIA monthly short-term energy outlook report

The US fourth quarter earnings season will officially launch this Tuesday, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase leading the way in reporting earnings. Markets will focus on corporate profitability performance amid economic policy changes.