Based on the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin, current market signals, and institutional analysis, the current bear market has a high probability of starting in October 2025. The core adjustment cycle will mainly concentrate throughout 2026, with the bottom likely appearing between May and October 2026. Overall, the market will show characteristics of a "slow decline in a long bear market and bottoming out gradually," rather than the previous waterfall-style crash.
The core judgment is based on three main dimensions, taking into account both historical patterns and current market specifics:

The Federal Reserve's rate cut as scheduled initially boosted crypto prices, then caused a decline. Attempts to bottom out and positive news to watch for! 12.11 Bitcoin Auntie's Strategy
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the December dot plot shows only one rate cut expected in 2026, well below market expectations. Although Trump complained that “the cut is too small.” This month, $40 billion in short-term US Treasury purchases (non-QE) were launched to selectively ease overnight lending market pressure. The surprise liquidity injection led to a short-t

Currently, the only ones still active in this market are institutions and KOLs. It feels like at least 90% of retail investors have disappeared. Altcoins are scams, Bitcoin is unaffordable, and many people have left the space. 🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐🧐

Do you remember when I first entered the crypto world, the pro said, "Invest for value, hold and don’t move!" I resolutely held onto a meme coin for a year, enduring countless 90% big dumps without flinching, feeling like the Warren Buffett of the crypto world. As it finally rebounded by 50%, I excitedly sold my coins to celebrate with a cup of milk tea... only for it to suddenly pump by 800% just ten minutes after I sold! It turns out I not only perfectly missed out but also personally sold the "get-rich-quick code." I can't help but give myself a thumbs up for this operation!

#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 ETH Whale's accumulation is not speculation, it is narrative reconstruction: the ultimate weapon against inflation tax through decentralized Computing Power. For every inch the dollar system collapses, the underlying value of Blockchain solidifies by a foot.
While you are still focusing on the K-line chart for trading, the whales are already launching a dimensionality reduction attack on the fiat currency system.
The Federal Reserve's FOMC continues to flood the market, M2 skyrockets, and the yield curve inverts—traditional finance's sore is festering. When the tide g

A little advice for everyone during the #Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Bear Market
1. Core Idea: Do not doubt the crypto track. This is currently one of the few ways that allows ordinary people without social resources to turn their lives around.
2. The bull and bear effects over the past four years have been diminishing. Staying sensitive allows continuous participation in various new projects to obtain short-term or ultra-short-term investment returns, but avoid FOMO.
3. The best strategy in a Bear Market is to choose to stick to a good track. As someone who has experienced the ups and downs, I've seen p

#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Powell is about to take action? The probability of a rate cut by the Fed next month soars, and Barclays' latest interpretation is here!
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
🚨Fed will lower interest rates next month or not,
Now the entire market is watching Powell - and Barclays' latest report directly points out: the boss is very likely to take the lead in pushing for interest rate cuts!
Currently, there are明显分歧 within the FOMC, which has subtly divided into three main factions:
· Dovish: Milan, Powell, and Waller were the first to express their views, believing the time has come;
· T

#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Many people do not recognize the bearish short and bullish long trend of the US stock market.
However, since December 2022, those who have been replicating the previous cycle basically haven't made any money because their understanding of the fixed cycle is the altcoin season. However, those diamond hands (dollar-cost averaging, holding altcoins for the long term) have all lost money. Many of my friends, those players who firmly believed in the altcoin season, have instead encountered the altcoin sacrifice.
I have experienced multiple rounds of bulls and bears in the crypto wo

I am most grateful to the stranger who stayed up with me debugging on Discord until the early hours. My first smart contract repeatedly failed due to insufficient Gas, and he not only shared his screen to guide me but also quietly covered the gas fee. When the contract was finally deployed successfully, I realized that the most beautiful thing about Web3 is not the technology, but this sincere help that transcends the screen.
#我的Web3感恩瞬间

#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Trump openly threatens: fire people if interest rates are not lowered! The Fed's December interest rate meeting hides a political storm.
The fryer is on! Trump staged a direct "palace coup" at the US-Saudi Investment Forum, threatening Treasury Secretary Basent in front of all the guests: "If you don't manage to lower interest rates soon, I'm out of here!" Before the words were out of his mouth, he pointed his finger directly at Fed Chairman Powell, stating, "I want to fire him right now," and revealed that Commerce Secretary Lutnik supports this decision, while Basen

#Gate广场圣诞送温暖
The truth behind the Bitcoin crash
Let's sort out the reasons for the Bitcoin crash, which can be divided into the following aspects:
Core Trigger: Reversal of Macro Expectations, Panic over Liquidity Tightening
This is the most fundamental and direct reason.
1. The Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, expectations for interest rate cuts sharply cool:
· Key figures speak out: Federal Reserve Governor Barr (the top regulator) and other important officials collectively shift to a hawkish stance, emphasizing that inflation remains high (3%), far from the 2% target, and must b

#Gate广场圣诞送温暖
I saw someone attribute the reason for this round of decline $BTC to the Prince Group being confiscated of 120,000 BTC by the US government, claiming that the myth of BTC's decentralization has been shattered, so the decline will go to zero.
It really made me laugh, speaking as if they understand Bitcoin so well. If Bitcoin would crash just because it "cannot be used for gray and black markets," then when Silk Road was taken down a few years ago, it would have already been done for. The U.S., Germany, and the U.K. all seized a bunch of Bitcoin back then, and what happened? T

Currently, the expectation of interest rate cuts by the PM has fallen to 31%.
Interest rates not falling have already risen to 67%.
Trump issued a "last ultimatum" to Bessent: If interest rate cuts do not work, he will consider replacing the Treasury Secretary.
Looking back at the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, from 2024 to 2025, Trump was jumping around happily, but it still followed the Fed's own pace. It is not easy for Chinese people to understand this kind of game: what the American side says does not count.
#Gate广场圣诞送温暖

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting and recent statements from several officials indicate significant disagreements on whether to cut interest rates in December. This "stalemate" is the root cause of increased market volatility and uncertainty. They can be roughly divided into three camps:
Position Camp Main Points Focus Areas Representative Figures
🕊️ Doves support continuing interest rate cuts in December, believing this is an "insurance" against risks in the labor market. The labor market remains weak, and high interest rates impact ordinary families and consumers. G

Bitcoin has risen above 90,000, yet the market has fallen silent: an underestimated opportunity is brewing.
When Bitcoin once again touches the $90,000 mark, the market is unusually quiet. No FOMO, no frenzy, only general caution and observation - this in itself is the most noteworthy market signal.
1. The "post-trauma" market: No one believes in the "wolf is coming" anymore.
The lessons from the previous false breakouts have made investors particularly cautious. Whenever Bitcoin approaches 90,000, profit-taking orders flood in. The collective memory of the market is causing most people to hes

#我对Gate广场的建议分享
I think the dynamic creation feature of Gate Square is very practical, allowing for efficient access to industry dynamics and market analysis. However, there is a delay in information updates, and the pushes mostly consist of old articles, making it difficult to view the latest articles and missing out on market trends; there is insufficient filtering of quality content, and many good articles have not been recommended. In addition, the mobile version lacks a reward function after the update, and I hope it can be restored to enhance interaction and content returns, optimizing t