Based on the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin, current market signals, and institutional analysis, the current bear market has a high probability of starting in October 2025. The core adjustment cycle will mainly concentrate throughout 2026, with the bottom likely appearing between May and October 2026. Overall, the market will show characteristics of a "slow decline in a long bear market and bottoming out gradually," rather than the previous waterfall-style crash.

The core judgment is based on three main dimensions, taking into account both historical patterns and current market specifics:
1. Precise alignment with the cycle timeframe: Reviewing the last three halving cycles, the bull market peaks occurred 12-18 months after halving, followed immediately by a bear market, with the bear market bottoming out 25-30 months after halving. The fourth halving is scheduled for April 2024, and October 2025 falls within the "18 months after halving" peak window. The current price has already retraced over 34% from the high, fully consistent with the historical inertia of "entering a bear market immediately after the peak." Based on this pattern, the bear market bottom is expected between May and October 2026.
2. Technical breakdown confirms the bull-bear turning point: Key technical indicators have already signaled a clear bear market. Bitcoin first closed below the core support of this bull cycle—the 50-week SMA (in the $86,000-$88,000 range)—for several consecutive weeks in November 2025. Historical data shows that breaking below this moving average during a bull phase essentially signifies the end of bull momentum. Additionally, well-known analysts, based on the "extended cycle theory," predict that this bear market adjustment will last approximately 364 days, with the bottom likely forming around October 2026.
3. Institutional funds and macro environment determine the bear market's pace: This cycle is supported by $176 billion in spot ETF institutional funds, making it notably more resilient than previous cycles. The bear market is unlikely to see extreme crashes and is more probable to manifest as a "gradual decline plus long-term consolidation." At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, providing liquidity easing that buffers prices. The bottom range is likely to be locked between $40,000 and $70,000, rather than falling below the previous bear market lows.
However, a small probability variable must be noted: if subsequent institutional funds re-enter strongly and Bitcoin's price breaks through the $128,000 all-time high, a "double top" pattern could form, extending the bull cycle. But given the current situation of breaking key support and a 13% unrealized loss among institutions, this probability is less than 20%. #广场发帖领$50