Web3哲学家Arnaud

Zhang Xue, Soichiro Honda, and Steve Jobs all share the same temperament.
They are obsessive product enthusiasts who created great brands, turning practical items into luxury goods.
The essence of luxury goods: the materialization of values and aesthetics.
Their driving force is aesthetic perfection, not business profit, so they pursue absolute perfectionism. This obsession ultimately shapes their corporate culture.
In contrast to "aesthetic-driven" leaders are Tetsuo Fujisawa, Ford, Cook, Lei Jun—those who deconstruct and improve product and supply chain efficiency to produce mass-mar

When an analyst's influence is strong enough to shake the candlestick chart, he has already changed.
Few believe, so analysis has value; more followers turn analysis into fact, and facts will trigger counterfactuals from opponents.
Unless he chooses to cooperate with the opponents and face the followers together—this is the way to win forever.

Will Hermes Agent replace OpenClaw?
The era of self-evolving, highly-memory agents.

In coordination games, cooperation is a Nash equilibrium; in zero-sum games, betrayal is a Nash equilibrium.
Therefore, seek out fields that have not yet formed gatekeeping structures—that is, rapidly growing sectors.
Only when a sector maintains rapid marginal growth will the bad habits of stock competition—selfishness, cronyism, vicious competition—appear uneconomical.
When opportunities are everywhere, competing with others becomes an inefficient choice.
I cannot rely on human virtues, but I can always rely on human economics: most people will choose the path with the least resistan

Agents greatly expand the scope of my knowledge.
Many things I previously didn't understand or could only grasp at 10 or 20 percent, with the help of Agents' research, I can now understand at 80 or 90 percent.
Learning with Agents and learning without Agents are completely different concepts, and human cognition will thus enter a new phase of differentiation.
The essence of Agents is transforming the way of cognition from serial to parallel, which is naturally and inherently beneficial to multi-taskers, especially thinkers with ADHD tendencies.

Pursuing order results in mediocrity; pursuing randomness, however, leads to control.
Humans cannot avoid randomness, but they can attempt to understand and manage it.
Power-law tail returns belong only to those present; observe, experience, think, and wait for the next asymmetric opportunity.

2020: COVID-19 pandemic, demand shock
2026: Iran war, supply shock
The decline is not because of the Iran war; the Iran war merely accelerated the downward process.
Regarding the high premiums on risk assets and the potential risks in current credit and liquidity levels, I also discussed this in February this year. At that time, the MOVE index was low, and now it has reached 112.
Intuition and some clues from the bond credit market suggest that a crisis is brewing: MOVE 112 + HY Spread 321bp (in an expanding trend) + TIPS 2.08% hitting a new high + TGA continuously rising.
The current situatio

Where can I buy spot goods $bp ?

Sex education in China is basically absent.
The first scenario: boys think sex is a performance, girls think sex is endurance.
The second scenario: boys think sex is a responsibility, girls think sex is love.
Sex is not understood as itself; it is always linked to other things—performance, endurance, responsibility, love. Everyone is using sex to fulfill a task it was never meant to carry.

It's not that the humanities are useless, but rather that they have extremely high variance.
Although I cannot endorse the dichotomy between liberal arts and sciences, let's make that distinction for the sake of argument. Scientific ability follows a normal distribution, while humanities ability follows a power law distribution.
An interesting observation: great politicians and great speculators are all linguistic-logical geniuses with philosophical talent. They can understand the rules of the world and create new rules from nothing.
Computer science defined code, while philosophy defined mean

A skinny person wearing Lululemon sportswear looks very artistic, while a fat person wearing a Yohji Yamamoto coat might be mistaken for just wearing a raincoat.

What is aesthetic tension?
Tension is when something that scores 100 points is trimmed down to 80 points, leaving 20 points for people to imagine.
There's another approach:
Something that originally scores 100 points is trimmed down to 20 points, leaving 80 points for people to imagine.
This is "whitespace."

Most criticism doesn't stem from insight but from cognitive laziness.
If a person nitpicks trivial matters while avoiding deep thought on issues requiring cognitive effort, they appear "smart" yet are actually narrow-minded.
After recognizing this, whenever I offer criticism, I always consider whether my critique is structural, fundamental, and constructive. If it's not, it means I'm merely seeking the sense of superiority through criticism rather than using it to understand, analyze, and attempt to solve problems.
People unaware of this tendency are enthusiastic about fault-finding and commen

The dichotomy between risk assets and safe-haven assets has collapsed. The framework of thinking about whether BTC is risky or a safe haven has become meaningless.
All assets are essentially liquidity assets, with the only difference being their beta relative to liquidity. The direction and changes in macro liquidity determine everything: during tightening, capital clusters around blue chips, like AI currently, until tightening becomes a collapse; gold at elevated levels may be filled with speculation, while BTC, falling first, may absorb the overflow after a bubble burst.
There is no eternal

Rational people are only willing to hold assets long-term, never to hold liabilities long-term.
Assets create value, liabilities extract value.
People may pay a price for the short-term value of liabilities, which is consumption, not investment.

Rest is actually dopamine withdrawal, entering a state dominated by endorphins and serotonin.
Dopamine is pursuit, endorphins are acceptance, serotonin is tranquility.

When I was chasing traffic, I often wrote sensational content that got hundreds of thousands of views.
Now I only want to create content that takes responsibility for a small group of people—content for the elite.
1% of people create 99% of the value.

I get the feeling you're the type of person who chats with Douyin and feels like she really understands you.