#美联储降息 Fed cuts interest rates + Morgan Stanley optimistic about the 2026 bull run, this combination sounds very tempting, but I have to be honest - this is exactly the moment that is easiest to get carried away.
I have seen too many people dive headfirst into various projects under the banner of "institutional optimism" that are labeled as "cyclical recovery". Do you remember that wave in 2021? It was the same expectation of interest rate policy + institutions being bullish, and what was the result? A large number of people bought at high prices, and under the guise of "long-term value inves

#借贷协议风险 After reading this analysis of USD, I have to say something true—this is the real way to understand the risks of the lending protocol and stablecoin.
Most people look at USDT and ask, "Is it backed by real money?" In fact, they are asking the wrong question. The essence of Tether is that it is an unregulated bank that issues digital deposits on demand and then invests that money to earn interest spreads. I've seen this logic countless times in traditional finance, and now it's just the same old shell moved onto the blockchain.
The issue is this: according to the Basel capital

#减半机制 Having seen Bernstein's report, I must admit that the logic of this analysis makes me a bit wary.
It's not new that Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle pattern, but the problem is that every time institutions start to depict a grand narrative, retail investors are often in the most dangerous position. The report emphasizes that ETF outflows are less than 5%, used to argue that "institutions are bottom fishing while retail investors are in panic." This argument sounds reassuring, but on the flip side, this is exactly the narrative that institutions hope retail investors will accep

#美联储政策 The Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates on December 10th, with a liquidity injection of 45 billion. This move is essentially just giving money to the market. I had previously predicted that the market wouldn't perform poorly in the first three months of next year, and the fundamental reason lies here.
The market is quite interesting right now. BTC is still fluctuating within a triangular pattern, and the short-term focus is on whether it can break through the upper edge. The minor support has already moved to 88,000-89,000. The day before yesterday, I wanted to enter long at

#美联储政策影响 Seeing BitMine's recent operations, I need to analyze calmly. The pace of increasing holdings has doubled, and the scale has exceeded 10 billion USD, which is indeed impressive. However, those who have experienced several cycles understand that large institutional layouts are often a double-edged sword.
The reasons mentioned by Tom Lee sound reasonable: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, technological upgrades, and enough time away from the clearing shock. The question is, will these reasons become the material for the next round of public opinion hype? I have seen too

#美联储降息政策 Seeing the probability of Hasset becoming the Fed chairman rise to 86%, I must calmly say: Don't be hijacked by the expectations of the "raging bull."
In recent years of navigating the blockchain, I have seen too many people go all in because of macro positive news, only to be harvested by the big players. Yes, interest rate cuts, the restart of QE, and reduced regulatory uncertainty do indeed constitute long-term benefits for Bitcoin — but the keyword is "long-term".
Hassett's crypto background is there; he holds Coinbase stock and has been an advisor, and I acknowledge this

#比特币价格走势分析 When I saw this wave of data, I was reminded of the lessons learned from being played for suckers over the years. CryptoQuant's risk aversion indicator is approaching the high-risk zone, and historically, this position is often a precursor to a pullback—this is nothing new; I've seen it too many times in a Bear Market.
The key is that the profit and loss score has dropped to -3, and the losses from UTXO are extremely concentrated. What does this indicate? It indicates that the chips in the hands of retail investors are highly concentrated in a state of loss. Bitcoin has pul

#Meme币市场 After watching He Yi's interview, I have to say an honest truth: the Meme coin market is currently an emotion harvesting machine, looking at emotions in the short term and value in the long term—this statement sounds simple, but very few retail investors can truly grasp this logic.
I have been in the crypto space for so many years, and I have seen too many people dazzled by the rise of Meme coins. The promises of "ten-thousand-fold divine coins" and "must-rise projects" are, to put it bluntly, just a game of probabilities—casting a wide net, there will always be a few that happen

#监管框架与政策 The US SEC is holding a roundtable on December 15 to discuss financial regulation and privacy issues, which is a signal worth following. After experiencing several rounds of reshuffling in the crypto world, I increasingly believe in a principle: the clarity of the regulatory framework directly determines the life and death of a project.
Do you remember those projects that claimed to be for "privacy protection"? Now they have basically all become risk assets. Regulatory authorities are increasingly paying attention to this area, indicating that the compliance game on the chain has ent

#比特币价格走势 Seeing that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket is only 33%, I actually feel a bit more at ease. This indicates that the market remains rational—at least in terms of predictions, no one is blindly going all-in on one direction.
But have you noticed another set of data? The probability of dropping below $80,000 is 37%, which is higher than the chance of rising to $100,000. This really highlights the issue. When the market is discussing "whether to hit new highs," the downside risk is actually more worth paying attention to.
The losses I've suffered in this circl

#美联储降息政策 The probability of Haskett becoming the new Federal Reserve Chair has soared to 86%. I have to be honest—this policy shift is much more complicated than it appears.
On the surface, aggressive rate cuts, restarting QE, and reducing the obsession with inflation are indeed bullish for risk assets. Bitcoin and growth stocks are all gearing up. But there are pitfalls that seasoned investors need to see clearly.
First, Haskett aims to achieve both a "recessionary rate cut" and "over 3% prosperous growth"—which sounds like digging his own grave. Short-term rate cuts stimulate the economy, n

#宏观经济 This week's Federal Reserve meeting is under close watch because it relates to the overall market rhythm. The 84% probability of rate cuts seems solid, but there's a detail that's easy to overlook—there are 5 members of the FOMC who oppose or doubt further easing of monetary policy, a level of disagreement not seen since 2019.
My experience is that the more "settled" things appear, the more caution is needed regarding underlying disagreements. Powell's wording is more critical than the actual rate cuts; how he describes the future path will directly influence market expectations. I don'

#加密货币监管框架 Seeing the regulatory authorities' stance this time, I have to be honest: over the past three years, I have seen too many people get caught in the crypto market, and every time a regulatory risk warning is issued, it can become a market turning point.
Do you remember the announcement in May 2021? Bitcoin dropped over 30% that day, crashing from 43,000 to 30,000. Several friends I know who were using leverage were liquidated that day, suffering heavy losses. Then in 2022, during the NFT wave, the Internet Finance Association issued a notice, leading Tencent Huanhe and Alibaba Jingtan

#预测市场活动 After reviewing the 2025 market recap, the most heartbreaking statement is: "TGE has become a selling point for early participants and teams rather than value creation." This is the harsh truth about us old韭菜 being cut.
Do you remember those projects that loudly claimed "Airdrop is coming"? As soon as TGE launched, they dumped the price, teams quickly unlocked, retail investors bought the dip. I've seen too many套路 like this—high FDV, zero revenue, projects sustained by memes and FOMO, ending up with nothing. Liquidity has been drained by these trash projects, while those truly buildin

#美国经济数据 Seeing the PCE data fall back to 2.8%, I actually become more cautious. Don't be fooled by the surface of "improving data"—this is precisely the time when it's easiest to get caught in a trap.
Reflecting on my lessons over the years, whenever the market forms a high consensus around a certain expectation, that's where the risks are most concentrated. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has been priced in at 84%, and Wall Street, investors, and even the FOMC members are betting on this "certainty." But look at how divided the FOMC is—5 out of 12 members oppose,

#美联储货币政策 Seeing the farce surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chair appointment, I was reminded of the losses I’ve suffered in the market over the years. The new chair faces a "triple threat" of rate cuts, tariffs, and inflation—sounds familiar, right? Policy contradictions, chaotic market signals, and retail FOMO leading to total losses.
Hassett is most likely to take over, with an 86% probability. This guy advocates aggressive rate cuts, prefers loose policies, and has a crypto background—look, this combo is like the favorite move of the big players. Liquidity easing + falling interest rate

#加密货币监管趋势 Seeing this news, I can't help but feel nostalgic: back then, I was also attracted by the "freedom" of the US crypto market and almost took a big fall. Now, Macron warns that relaxing regulations in the US could trigger financial risks, and I strongly agree. As US regulators loosen controls, stablecoin market capitalization soars, seeming prosperous on the surface but actually fraught with crises. Stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, and once problems arise, the global financial system could be impacted.
Looking back, I was blinded by the so-called "freedom," thinking the US mar

#ETF市场需求变化 This wave of decline reminds me of the painful lessons from the past. The market is always like this—after a wave of enthusiasm comes harsh reality. ETF capital outflows and liquidation waves surge, and everyone is panic selling. But upon reflection, isn’t this exactly the risk we repeatedly emphasize?
Overleveraging, lack of liquidity, macro risks—these are all old issues. Unfortunately, many still get blinded by short-term profits and forget the ruthlessness of the market.
Now, when I see people say this is manipulation, I just want to say: stop making excuses! The market is so b

#比特币市场动态 Seeing this news, I can't help but recall the pitfalls I encountered back in the day. After Bitcoin's price stabilized, the panic among investors subsided, and funds began flowing into bullish options. I'm very familiar with this situation. On the surface, it seems like good news, but in reality, it could be the market makers setting up for a new round of harvesting.
ETF funds have been flowing out for six consecutive weeks, hitting a new all-time low, which clearly indicates large capital withdrawals. Meanwhile, risk appetite in the derivatives market has decreased, with open intere

#宏观经济环境 Seeing this news, I feel a tightness in my chest. Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, with liquidation pressures, weak ETF demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties... These factors combined make the market exceptionally fragile. Recalling previous major downturns, I feel this situation is somewhat similar.
The key now is to stay calm and not be swayed by panic emotions. The liquidation wave has already begun and may continue to cause short-term declines. But in the long run, the market will always return to rationality. What we need to do is manage risk, avoid leverage trading, and keep