#美联储政策 The Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates on December 10th, with a liquidity injection of 45 billion. This move is essentially just giving money to the market. I had previously predicted that the market wouldn't perform poorly in the first three months of next year, and the fundamental reason lies here.

The market is quite interesting right now. BTC is still fluctuating within a triangular pattern, and the short-term focus is on whether it can break through the upper edge. The minor support has already moved to 88,000-89,000. The day before yesterday, I wanted to enter long at 86,000, but the lowest it went was only 87,000. This is a reminder from the market — those who always want to catch the lowest point often end up missing out. After ETH broke below 3,000, it rebounded, and now it's still in a pullback. I plan to wait for a minor level retracement before entering, and this 3,000 level must hold steady for it to continue moving upward.

To be honest, there is no suspense about the interest rate cut itself; the key is to see the execution strength of the subsequent US Treasury bond repurchases. Real liquidity is what drives the market, and I've seen too many empty promises.

As for those small coins and popular coins, like GPS and NTRN that are hovering at the bottom, TAO's first halving this week indeed has potential, but I've learned to be smart—no matter how good the story is, I must strictly control my position, and both stop-loss and take-profit must be written in the plan, not based on feelings. I had already taken a bearish stance on ASTER at 0.9, and I clearly stated that ZEC would drop at 580, now those who criticized me back then are silent. This is called market education.

As expectations for interest rate cuts rise, it's easy to see a false prosperity during such times; don't let the market's heat cloud your judgment. Living longer is more valuable than making quick money for a moment.