2026 nos EUA enfrentam uma nova mudança: Como as alterações de política no ano eleitoral irão impactar o mercado?

【区块律动】Recent fluctuations in the US stock market have raised attention to the behind-the-scenes drivers — namely, the upcoming midterm elections. Analysts have introduced a concept called “Big MAC trading,” which simply means that policy changes before and after the elections will become the main market drivers.

Trump has been very active at the beginning of the year, with actions that drew significant attention. From demanding credit card companies to cut interest rate caps to 10% (less than half of the current average rate), to ordering defense contractors to stop dividends and reinvest in production, and even criticizing the Federal Reserve’s independence — all these actions point to the same goal: to boost momentum for the November congressional elections, while claiming to address the “living cost” issues faced by ordinary people to garner support.

How sensitive is the market to these moves? Just look at last week’s performance. Once the credit card interest rate policy was announced, bank stocks plummeted; after the defense companies were ordered to halt dividends, the entire defense sector also suffered; doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence led to a wave of pessimism on Wall Street.

The most challenging issue here is: before the elections, policies targeting specific industries will become more frequent, but no one truly knows how to hedge against these risks. This presents a new challenge for the stock market — past strategies may no longer be applicable. For investors, the coming months could be a test period.