Viewpoint: Bitcoin volatility is expected to continue to decline

According to Jinse Finance, with each halving of Bitcoin, its volatility is expected to continue to decrease. The next halving is scheduled for 2028, at which point Bitcoin’s scarcity will be four times that of gold. André Dragosch, the research director of ETC Group, said that as retail and institutional adoption of encryption technology increases, volatility will decrease over time structurally. Despite the annualized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum currently at around 45% to 50%, while the volatility of the S&P 500 index is about 15%, the volatility of cryptocurrencies is gradually decreasing. For example, the volatility of Bitcoin was as high as 200% in its initial stage, but has recently dropped to 45%. This is mainly due to the increasing scarcity of Bitcoin, making it more ‘gold-like’. Dragosch pointed out that as the diversity of investors increases, so does the divergence between buyers and sellers, thereby reducing volatility. This trend is expected to continue in the future, especially with the further popularization and adoption of encrypted assets. Investors need to understand that where there is growth, there is volatility, but this volatility is gradually decreasing.