XRP is facing selling pressure in the spot market in the near term, briefly breaking below the key support of $2.32 and reaching a low of $2.21. However, trading volume surged significantly at low levels, displaying clear “capitulation selling” characteristics, after which buying interest promptly stepped in and price stabilized with a rebound. In the short term, the market’s core focus is on whether XRP can re-establish above the $2.31–$2.32 range, thereby alleviating current downward structural pressure.
From a price action perspective, XRP showed strong demand absorption near $2.21. Daily trading volume reached 256.3 million tokens, over 140% above the average, yet price did not break lower further, indicating that selling pressure was effectively digested. Subsequent rebounds have been blocked multiple times at $2.31, which has now transformed into the primary resistance level. Before successfully reclaiming this range, the short-cycle trend remains weak, but the 60-minute chart reveals that the $2.258–$2.260 range has formed short-term support, with lower lows gradually rising, suggesting the market is attempting to establish a phase bottom.
More notably, changes are occurring in relative strength metrics. Analyst The Great Mattsby pointed out that XRP/BTC on the monthly chart is approaching the top of the Ichimoku cloud, which could be the first valid breakout signal since 2018. From historical precedent, monthly-level cloud breakouts often signal that an asset is poised to outperform Bitcoin over medium to long-term horizons, rather than merely experiencing a short-term bounce. This signal is particularly critical against the backdrop of “cross-asset rotation” at the beginning of the year.
It must be emphasized that the bullish structure in XRP/BTC primarily reflects relative strength improvement rather than an immediate reversal in spot price. However, if this breakout is confirmed, XRP would more readily attract proactive buying support during pullback phases, especially in market environments where risk appetite rises.
In summary, $2.21 serves as the current pivot between bulls and bears; a breakdown below could trigger another round of liquidations; while $2.31–$2.32 above represents the critical window for trend reversal. If spot price aligns with the long-term technical breakout in XRP/BTC, the medium-term narrative of XRP outperforming Bitcoin may return to market focus.
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