The corrections in the bear market have decreased with each cycle. Bear market 2011: a decline of -94%. Bear market 2013-2015: a decline of -87%. Bear market 2017-2018: a decline of -84%. Bear market 2021-2022: a decline of -77.5%. Based on this, this cycle could be as low as 60-65%. That would place Bitcoin's cycle low around $45,000–$50,000.

【$BTC Signal】Hold Cash and Wait — Key Support Test Amid Deep Imbalance $BTC After breaking below EMA20, the price is testing a critical support zone. The depth chart shows heavy selling pressure, but the funding rate turning negative suggests excessive bearish sentiment. 🎯 Direction: Hold Cash (NoPosition) Market Analysis: The price has broken below the 4H EMA20 (68,842) and is testing the previous low at the key support zone of 67,000-66,500. The 4H RSI (37.23) is approaching oversold levels but not at an absolute low. Core Logic: The main contradiction lies in the divergence between the deep imbalance (-96.98%) and the funding rate (-0.0014%). The sell wall (8.224 BTC at 67,022.8) is significantly thicker than the buy wall, indicating immediate selling pressure. However, the negative funding rate combined with stable open interest suggests the decline is driven by long liquidations rather than new short positions, reducing the risk of a short squeeze. Key Observation: The price needs to stabilize above 66,500 (the previous low / Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level) and show signs of buy absorption (such as a 4H Pin Bar + increased volume). If volume increases and the price breaks below 66,500, the trend turns bearish, with a target below 65,000. Currently, ATR (1314) is relatively large, indicating high market volatility and a high risk of blindly bottom-fishing. Strategy: Wait and see. 1) If a clear 4H bullish engulfing pattern or Pin Bar appears between 66,500-67,000, and buy orders deepen, consider a small long position on the left side. 2) If volume breaks below 66,500, follow the trend and look for short opportunities. The current win rate is low, so holding cash is the best choice. Trade here 👇 $BTC --- Follow me: Get more real-time analysis and insights on the crypto market! ‍#我在Gate广场过新年 #当前行情抄底还是观望？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

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