12.8 Early Morning BTC and ETH Analysis and Forecast The current crypto market is in a key period of volatility, marked by macro policy games and divergence in capital structure. Bull and bear conflicts are prominent, with directional choices highly dependent on Federal Reserve policy guidance. On the macro level, the Fed’s December rate meeting is approaching, and the market is pricing in a 94% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, internal disagreements among officials have led to repeated expectations, with residual effects of high rates tugging against easing expectations. Added to this are global geopolitical tensions and a weakening US labor market, making risk assets highly sensitive to volatility. The capital side shows a stark “fire and ice” split: on one hand, Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT saw six consecutive weeks of net outflows, with over $2.7 billion withdrawn in total, and a single-day outflow of $195 million on December 4, the highest in two weeks. ETF holdings have plummeted from 441,000 BTC in October to 271,000, with retail demand sharply shrinking and holdings down 73%. On the other hand, stablecoins saw a net issuance of $3.026 billion in a single week, up 50.4% week-on-week, with fiat funds accumulating in stablecoin form. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase holdings, now accounting for over 3.2% of total BTC supply. Whales and long-term holders (LTH) are at record highs, with clear signs of accumulation at lower prices and an accelerated shift of chips from retail to institutions. Market sentiment has marginally warmed from extreme fear (index 11) but remains cautious. Trading volumes are down, leverage is low, and there’s a lack of clear incremental capital catalysts, resulting in an overall “institutional bottom support + short-term selling pressure” dynamic. BTC (Current price $89,200) 1. Capital and Chip Structure - Divergence in institutional moves: Major ETF outflows are driving short-term selling pressure, with IBIT’s single-day largest redemption at $332.6 million. However, core institutions have not exited en masse; IBIT’s cumulative inflow still totals $36.9 billion. JPMorgan now accepts BTC as trading collateral, and the long-term allocation logic remains intact. Whale behavior is mixed, with some super-large holders (addresses with 10,000–100,000 BTC) slightly reducing positions, while mid-to-large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) are increasing holdings against the trend. A large transfer of 80,000 old BTC has raised potential selling concerns, but overall unrealized profit margins are near zero, limiting further selling pressure. - Supply and demand: BTC balances on exchanges have dropped to 1.8 million, a new low since 2017, with spot supply continuing to tighten. However, there’s a significant retail buying gap, and short-term demand support is insufficient. The $92,000 level is dense with chips (2.23% of total supply), with fierce bull-bear turnover and pricing power entirely dominated by institutions. 2. Technical Trend Currently fluctuating in the $84,305–$93,400 range, with the key battleground at the $89,000–$90,000 watershed. A previous “death cross” technical pattern has formed, and bearish signals have not fully dissipated. Key support levels focus on $88,000 (recent rebound low + short-term pivot) and $86,000 (early December strong support); resistance is concentrated at $90,000 (psychological round number) and $93,000–$95,000 (previous range high + key rebound threshold). The current price is running below the 20-day moving average, showing clear weak-side consolidation. It’s difficult for a clear one-sided trend to form before a breakout or breakdown of the key range. 3. Trading Strategy - Long: Light position buy at $88,500–$89,000, stop loss at $88,000, target $90,000–$91,000, play for a rebound off short-term support, exit if stop loss is triggered. - Short: Light position short on rebound at $90,000–$90,500, stop loss at $91,000, target $88,500–$87,800, take advantage of upper resistance for a quick short, stop loss if resistance is broken. ETH (Current price $3,010) 1. Capital and Ecosystem Logic - Capital stronger than BTC: ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows, with $86 million this week. While this is down week-on-week, the support remains solid, and institutions are still bullish on technical upgrades. However, ETH is being dragged down by BTC’s movements in the short term, with a $41.6 million ETF net outflow on December 4 and CME positions down 11.1% over 30 days, reflecting some funds’ wait-and-see attitude on staking yields and subsequent ETF approval pace. - Clear ecosystem support: After the Fusaka upgrade, Layer2 fees have dropped by 30%–60%, Blob data capacity has increased 8x, on-chain stablecoin trading volume hit a record high, and RWA tokenization is accelerating, strengthening underlying value logic. Institutions like BlackRock continue to increase holdings, regulatory certainty is improving, and mid-to-long-term growth potential is recognized. However, there’s a lack of immediate catalysts in the short term, making it difficult for ETH to outperform independently. 2. Technical Trend Moving in tandem with BTC, with a short-term core range of $2,950–$3,200. The $3,000 mark is a key psychological support. After a previous drop to $2,719, ETH rebounded and is now near the lower Bollinger Band. Support focuses on $2,980 (Bollinger lower band) and $2,950 (recent low); resistance at $3,050 (5-day MA cap) and $3,100–$3,150 (previous consolidation platform). MACD bearish momentum is easing, but there’s no clear sign of a stable bottom. The $3,000 level will determine short-term direction. 3. Trading Strategy - Long: Try light position long at $2,990–$3,010, stop loss at $2,960, target $3,050–$3,080, rely on $3,000 support for a rebound, cut loss if broken. - Short: Light short on rebound at $3,040–$3,050, stop loss at $3,080; or chase short if $3,000 breaks, stop loss at $3,030, target $2,980–$2,950. IV. Core Risk Warnings 1. Policy risk: If the Fed’s December meeting sends a hawkish signal or delays rate cuts, it could trigger a liquidity squeeze, and BTC/ETH may retest $84,000/$2,700 support. 2. Capital risk: Continued BTC ETF outflows, if not resolved, could break short-term support; ETH should beware of institutional capital withdrawals triggering correlated declines. 3. Trading discipline: Focus on light positions (≤20% per asset), strict stop loss control, avoid heavy positions in a volatile market, and wait for clear macro signals before adjusting exposure. #十二月行情展望 #广场发帖领$50 #加密市场观察

The mining sector #Mining has reached a new record high in costs, as producing one Bitcoin #Bitcoin now requires direct expenses exceeding $74,000. Data indicates that the total all-in costs for a single coin have reached levels close to $138,000, reflecting the significant financial challenges currently facing the sector. $ETH ‌H $BTC $BTC ‌BNB ‌

Layer2 wars getting real and the data doesn't lie. Arbitrum's sitting on top of the TVL leaderboard while actual transaction volume keeps climbing. Not just retail either - watch where the big money's parking their liquidity. Ethereum's scaling roadmap is unfolding, and one chain's getting picked over and over for real deployment. Not hype, just usage patterns speaking louder than marketing decks. Seen it go from theory to infrastructure. That's the difference.