The Russia-Ukraine war, which erupted in February 2022, has been a turning point that profoundly affected global energy markets, commodity prices, and investor psychology. Four years later, in March 2026, this ongoing conflict continues to shape direct oil supply and indirectly safe-haven assets. The most noticeable impact of the war was seen in energy markets. Russia's role as a producer supplying approximately 10% of the world's oil, combined with Western sanctions, caused Brent oil prices to skyrocket to levels around $130 in the initial years. The shockwave at that time fueled global inflation and put energy-importing countries (including Turkey) under serious current account deficit pressure. While the picture has changed somewhat by 2026, the shadow of the war still hangs over us. Recently, with new flare-ups in the Middle East (particularly the US-Israel-Iran tension), oil prices have jumped again. Brent crude has seen a rapid rise in recent days from $73 to the $77-78 range – with some sources reporting jumps of up to 13% at the open, marking one of the sharpest daily increases since the 2022 Russian invasion. Much of this rise stems from the near-halt of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and fears of supply disruptions. However, while the Russia-Ukraine front hasn't directly closed, the overall geopolitical risk premium created by the war remains a persistent upward pressure on oil prices. On the gold side, the story is clearer and more consistent: Since the war began, gold has become the strongest "safe haven" amidst central bank reserve diversification efforts, sanctions evasion attempts, and global uncertainty. Between 2022 and 2025, central banks doubled their gold purchases; Russia's frozen reserves further accelerated this trend. In March 2026, an ounce of gold is trading in the $5,300-$5,400 range – some predictions are talking about $6,000 by the end of the year, or even $10,000 in the long term. In Türkiye, the price of gold per gram is climbing from around 7,500-7,800 TL. The fear of inflation created by the war, the volatility of the dollar, and risk aversion in equity markets are among the factors constantly fueling the rise of gold. So, how "active" is the impact of this war today?
Oil: Although the direct supply disruption from Russia has decreased (Russian oil is shifting to Asia at a discounted price), the global energy security concerns created by the war are still reflected in prices. Combined with new tensions in the Middle East, Brent is challenging $80. Every $10 increase means fuel price increases, inflation, and current account deficit pressure in net importing countries like Turkey.
Gold: The "de-dollarization" and reserve diversification trend triggered by the war continues. The higher the geopolitical risk, the more gold shines. Current levels ($5,300+) represent a return of around 180-200% from the $1,800-$1,900 levels at the beginning of 2022. General Markets: Risk aversion in equities, a strengthening (but sometimes reversing) dollar, safe-haven demand in bonds... All of this has its roots in that morning in February 2022. In short, the Russia-Ukraine war is no longer just a regional conflict; it has become the name of an era in which global energy security, inflation, and the perception of "safe assets" are being redefined. Hopes for peace (or ceasefire negotiations) can pull prices down in the short term, but the risk premium is not eliminated from the markets unless a ceasefire is achieved.
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