Today is December 12th, BTC price is 92,080
Let's talk about 26 years initially. 25 was indeed poor; at the beginning of the year, BTC was over 80,000, and by the end of the year, over 90,000. Unfortunately, it didn't outperform the big A, let alone the US stock market. I believe 26 will be a turbulent and magnificent year, as the shift from carbon-based to silicon-based grand plans are gradually unfolding.
Domestically, the top priority is to expand domestic demand and technological competition. The new five-year plan aims to reach the level of a moderately developed country. The most effecti

Today is December 10th, and the BTC price is 92614
1. Tonight's view is that the probability of a rate cut is currently 87%, but due to the large internal controversy, it is possible that the speech will be more hawkish "such as reducing the probability of cutting interest rates next year". In addition, the real impact on the release of water is to restart QE (repurchase of treasury bonds), if there is really information about QE, then the market will be a real benefit. If there is no market, it still looks like it is volatile upward.
2. Yesterday's change of market I was not very sure of the

Today is November 28th, BTC price 91036
1. BTC has reached a stage of weak rebound on a small scale. Although the 5-day moving average is trending upwards, the 10 and 20-day moving averages are trending downwards. The small scale follows the larger scale, so be cautious of a pullback after a rise.
2. Here, the advantage of opening a short position in contracts is significant. When there is an intraday spike, go short; it will inevitably pull back (for details, please watch the video).
3. Small positions in spot can be held; if it pulls back, more can be added. For heavier positions, take profi

Today is November 26, BTC price 87365
On the macro front, the yen is depreciating and inflation is severe, but the new government's willingness to raise interest rates is not strong. The core policy is monetary easing, focusing on increasing per capita wages. In terms of the dollar, the expectation of a rate cut in December has reached 82%, and with the imminent talks between Russia and Ukraine, there is currently no major crisis in sight. Regarding the AI bubble, Trump has launched the Genesis project, which is said to be comparable to the "Apollo Moon Landing Program". The principle is t

Today is November 25th, BTC price 87043, Zhongji
1. Everyone is worried that the closing of arbitrage funds due to the yen's interest rate hike will lead to a stampede of risk funds, but since U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has urged a yen interest rate hike several times this year, I think the impact should not be that significant.
2. From a structural perspective, it's fine to call for everyone to buy the dip on that day when the pin was inserted. For specifics, take a close look at the video and how to control the positions.
3. The opportunity to open a position is still in small co

Today is November 24th, BTC price 87454, on Ji.
1. On the macro level, the risk is that the "yen" interest rate hike in December may lead to a closure of global arbitrage funds, resulting in short-term downside risk. However, it appears that Kōshi Sōma will still adopt a monetary easing policy, with a probability of 50%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts can still passively lead to yen appreciation, with a 75% probability of a rate cut in December. Another risk is the AI bubble, which I believe will not occur so soon.
2. Setting aside the macro view, the spot market has reached the

Today is November 21, BTC price 82900
1. The long position lost yesterday, sorry! In terms of structure, there is upward demand on both the 4-hour and 12-hour charts, and then the U.S. stock market plummeted, leading to a stop-loss exit.
2. Nvidia delivered its best financial report ever, profit-taking ensued, and the US stock market's AI bubble triggered panic selling, compounded by non-farm payroll data lowering interest rate cut expectations for December.
3. A large BTC candlestick has appeared, and the total contract positions have sharply decreased by 10%. Observe the trends in the US

Today is November 20th, BTC price 92606 Zhongji
1. Yesterday's analysis emphasized the need to start accumulating spot positions during the downward exploration, including the shift of contracts from short to long, indicating at least a phase bottom here. We saw a rebound of 5% after dipping to 88000, especially with SOL showing particularly strong momentum, which aligns with our expectations.
2. I think BTC will have a rebound at the 4-hour level next, so watch for buying opportunities during the dip (see video)