$BTC's drawdown has triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in late 2022.
STHs account for the bulk of the losses, while LTH losses stay comparatively contained, indicating that the stress is largely on recent buyers.
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Echoes of Early 2022
Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇

BTC faced a strong rejection at $93K last week, but as price attempts to break through this level again today, we’re seeing large short-liquidation clusters forming.
Short liquidations can act as fuel for upside, as forced buyers amplify momentum.
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At similar price levels to 21 Nov, $BTC 1W put IV spiked to 76%, reflecting aggressive downside hedging. Yesterday’s move saw only ~63%, showing a more muted risk premium. The market appears less worried, but any further downside could trigger a far sharper repricing.

A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
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Liquidity on Edge
Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile $81K–$89K range as liquidity thins and realized losses surge. Futures deleverage, options stay defensive, and demand remains weak.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇
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Whales on Hyperliquid turned net-long as price fell from $90K into the low-$80K range, marking the longest sustained long positioning in months. That move has since unwound, with exposure rotating modestly net-short, reflecting shallow conviction.
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Realized losses among new investors in major altcoins are rising, as prices continue to struggle to recover, signalling growing stress across the speculative end of the market.
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$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
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At $126.9, about 79.6% of Solana’s circulating supply (r~478.5M SOL) is now in loss, underscoring how top-heavy the market structure had become before the recent contraction.
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$BTC realized losses have surged to levels last seen during the FTX collapse, with short-term holders driving the bulk of the capitulation. The scale and speed of these losses reflect a meaningful washout of marginal demand as recent buyers unwind into the drawdown.
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Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple has retraced toward the lower bound of its long-term range, signalling a slowdown in momentum. Historically, such compressions have aligned with value-driven phases where price consolidates and demand begins to step in.
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Below the Band
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇

During last week's downturn, altcoins have shown unusual relative strength vs BTC. While uncommon, it follows a long period of alt underperformance. Most sectors are actually outperforming BTC

$BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.
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How profitable is the market for retail across the top 3 assets?
Using the estimated retail cost basis:
• BTC: @ $92K (~104% profit)
• ETH: @ $3K (~43% profit)
• XRP: @ $2.17 (~61% profit)
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Distribution pressure is beginning to ease across key cohorts. After weeks of heavy spending, several holder groups are now moderating their selling, a sign that the most aggressive supply may be starting to fade as $BTC trades -25% off the highs.
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Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.
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At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss
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