TunaKAYA

🔴Macroeconomic effects of external shocks in oil prices and the critical role of central banks in this process:
1. Basic Timeline and Critical Factors
• The effects of external shocks typically last longer than a week; sudden spikes in oil prices generally peak within three months.
• Two fundamental elements determine the course of the process: The duration of the shock and the Fed's (Federal Reserve) response function.
2. Three Conditions Needed for a Bear Market:
• Size of Price Increase: A sustained increase of at least 50-100% in oil prices, lasting several months.
• Hawkish Policy Respon

💥Global Oil Crisis and Its Impact on Markets!!
Status: Due to the war between the US-Israel and Iran (for ~12-14 days since )28 February(), the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Iran's new Leader and the IRGC have announced they will not allow passage; ~500 tankers are stuck in the Gulf. ~(20% of global oil supply )20 million barrels/day( has been disrupted, Gulf production has taken a serious hit.
Prices:
• Pre-war ~70-75 $
• Peak ~119-120 $
• Currently Brent ~99-100 $ )daily +8-9% gain, monthly +46%+(.
Measures Taken:
• IEA )including G7( historic decision: 400 million barrels of

Crypto side is also moving: BTC ~70.4K USD, ETH slightly up.
But the real story is oil jumping to $99… Even if BIST rebounds, the energy shock affects everyone.
Dollar at 44.13,
Spot Gold slightly down. Gram gold at 7.330 TL. Which one are you trusting these days?
#Bitcoin # Stock Exchange #Dolar #Gold

Iran war has high risk of prolonged escalation:
- Hormuz Strait traffic nearly halted,
- Oil crisis impacting global economy.
- Trump appears close to declaring "victory" but Iranian regime won't fall easily, war lasts weeks.
Market volatility continues. Adjust your positions accordingly.

Iran and Donald Trump's Latest Statements on the Strait of Hormuz:
The Strait is a critical passage point carrying approximately 20% of global oil flow and is effectively closed due to Iran's retaliatory actions (ship traffic has largely halted due to insurance and threats).
Trump's Latest Statements (March 9-10, 2026)
Trump made aggressive warnings on Truth Social and in interviews (specifically with CBS News):
• He stated that if Iran stops oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz, the US will respond with "20 times harsher" attacks than any seen to date. He used the phrases "Death, Fire, and Fury

🟠Markets may breathe a sigh of relief with Trump's statements, but is the danger over?
On the 11th day of the Iran-Israel war, I analyze the latest market conditions, sharp fluctuations in oil prices, and the future of global markets. Although Trump’s statement that "we are nearing the end of the war" pushed oil from $120 to $80, could Iran’s Strait of Hormuz move and resistance trigger a new chaos?👇
#Altın #Silver #Borsa #Bitcoin #Dolar #Bist100 #Ethereum #Quantfury #FED #Nasdaq #spx500 #SPX #dxy #US10Y #Faiz #CBRT #İranSavaşı #MarketAnalysis #petrol #NaturalGas #gas

BREAKING⚠️
Trump: The war could end soon...
Can we trust it, what do you think?

Petrol prices today surged by 30% reaching the $120 level. With Trump's statement that the war could end soon, it gave back all its gains and fell back to the $92 level.
#Petrol #oil

My new video is live, everyone...
#Altın #Silver #Borsa #Bitcoin #Dolar #Bist100 #Ethereum #Quantfury #FED #Euro #EURUSD #Nasdaq #spx500 #SPX #dxy #US10Y #Faiz #CBRT #petrol #NaturalGas #gas

🛢️Petrol prices have increased by over 100% since the beginning of the year, rising from $58 to $120.
The main reason is the Iran-Israel-US War and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over 20% of global oil production.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could exceed $150.
#petrol #oil

How did the markets start the week? My expectations: 📉🔥
Markets started the week with tension in the Middle East and (Iran conflict + retaliations) sharply. Oil surged, stocks sold off, safe havens mixed.👇
1. OIL (Brent)
Price ≈ 115-116 USD/barrel (+%24-26)
Technical: Strong Buy signals (moving averages and indicators).
Fundamental: Supply panic due to fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. If the war prolongs, 120-130 USD is discussed; if OPEC+ does not intervene, upside risk is high!
2. GOLD
Price ≈ 5,090-5,100 USD/ounce (-%1)
Technical: Strong Sell signals.
Fundamental: Dollar stre