SergioTesla
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$BTC
During my public stream yesterday I explained that:
1. I was expecting the weekly high to not be in
2. However, I thought the highs would be put in not far from the (then) current weekly high
In other words: every break of the weekly high would likely be shallow. This is still my stance:
The reason being is the time and distance statistics from @BrighterData. Yesterday, at the time of the stream, they were the following:
- 87.8% of P2s (weekly high) were put in later
- 27.5% of bullish weeks see more displacement from low to high
This means that the weekly was getting pretty exhausted in
BTC1.08%
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$BTC
During my public stream yesterday I explained that:
1. I was expecting the weekly high to not be in
2. However, I thought the highs would be put in not far from the (then) current weekly high
In other words: every break of the weekly high would likely be shallow. This is still my stance:
The reason being is the time and distance statistics from @BrighterData. Yesterday, at the time of the stream, they were the following:
- 87.8% of P2s (weekly high) were put in later
- 27.5% of bullish weeks see more displacement from low to high
This means that the weekly was getting pretty exhausted in
BTC1.08%
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$BTC
Why this monthly open dump is Bullish - backed by data.
Price just dropped a whopping 5.5% on the opening of the month, which gives more reason to look for longs than not to.
The monthly high is currently P1, of which we can say the following:
- 94.1% of monthly P1s form later
- 97.6% of monthly P1s have a bigger wick
In simple terms: if the current monthly high were to hold, then it would be put in unusually early and unusually close to the monthly open.
If you don’t know what P1 is, comment P1 and I’ll send you a simple explanation.
Given the stats, this monthly high is a weak high. It
BTC1.08%
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$BTC
Why this monthly open dump is Bullish - backed by data.
Price just dropped a whopping 5.5% on the opening of the month, which gives more reason to look for longs than not to.
The monthly high is currently P1, of which we can say the following:
- 94.1% of monthly P1s form later
- 97.6% of monthly P1s have a bigger wick
In simple terms: if the current monthly high were to hold, then it would be put in unusually early and unusually close to the monthly open.
If you do not know what P1 is, then comment 'P1' and I will send you a link to a simple tutorial that explains it.
So this means that t
BTC1.08%
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$BTC
Probably still a bit of upside left to go on the weekly for Bitcoin:
- Current Weekly P2 at Thursday 09:30 AM, 7.9% above weekly low
- 76.9% of weeks put in a P2 later
- 71.3% of bullish weeks see more displacement
So while the meat of the weekly move already happened, shorting here already does not seem like a high probability play.
BTC1.08%
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Betterforevervip:
$BTC
Bitcoin may still have some pump space on the weekly chart:
- The current weekly P2 is at 09:30 AM on Thursday, which is 7.9% higher than the weekly low.
- 76.9% of the weeks invested in P2 later.
- 71.3% of bullish weeks saw more displacement.
So although the weekly Fluctuation has already occurred, shorting here does not seem to be a high probability operation.
I’ve been a bit quieter lately. When the market isn’t offering anything meaningful, I shift my attention back to building.
Right now I’m deep in the design of the next version of @BrighterData. It’s more complex than anything we’ve done so far, and once I'm in a hard problem I can't let go until I solve it.
I’m not buying these levels, I’m not selling either. Just waiting. In the meantime, building the next evolution of BD is the best use of my attention.
The direction is clear and I’m excited about where it’s heading. Execution is what matters now.
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We posted a vacancy for @BrighterData recently and got 40 applications. The funny part is that the ones NOT written with AI stood out instantly.
Most applications looked like the perfect submission from five years ago. Long, polished, every skill neatly lined up, CV looking like the applicant’s entire career had been engineered for exactly what we needed.
The problem was that I had 30 of those. None of them stood out. They were too perfect and too artificial. In the end we chose the “less perfect” applications that were clearly written by an actual human.
What used to be the gold standard for
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$BTC
Monthly statistics are still biased for further downside:
- 82% of monthly P2s are put in later
- 82.9% of bearish months see more bearish displacement
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$BTC
So far not seeing any reason to say Bitcoin is bottoming here yet. PA looking weak.
If the current month will be bearish, then 80% of bearish months would see enough bearish displacement to make it to 90k.
Given the historical timing of monthly lows and highs, you'd want next week to be bullish to retain a good chance for not printing that bearish monthly candle.
BTC1.08%
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I’ve been on the road since Thursday and have little time to update charts, but for those asking, my bias remains the same as the last few months:
The invalidation I gave a while ago has not been hit and thus nothing has changed: I remain HTF bullish until we decisively lose 104k (unsustained moves to 100k are fine).
Price is still within the same local range as the last few months and thus I will continue to assume a range until it breaks.
If the local range breaks down my invalidation will surely be activated but so far that simply has not happened.
Please understand that my invalidation do
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Unsurprisingly, the feed is starting to fill with posts from people short from ATH after the price has dropped 20k from the top.
When we're back at ATHs in a couple of weeks, the same people will post why they're long from the last HTF bottom.
Can't beat Captain Hindsight.
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$BTC
Very interesting levels now. No need to start knife-catching here though, going to let this week play out.
But if next week we start seeing bullish weekly statistics, then that will make for a great potential long setup.
88%(!) of weeks put in the weekly high/low on Tuesday in the last 2 years, so we'll be looking for a good potential weekly low on Monday/Tuesday.
We'll let the data guide us.
BTC1.08%
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Posted this setup on $TSLA the other day. The interesting part of it: this was 100% based on statistics from @BrighterData
Literally 0 TA was used. I didn't even look at the chart to spot it.
Slowly but surely, I am inching closer to my goal of a fully data-driven approach that will not require charts anymore.
We keep building.
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$BTC - Video Update
Explaining what I make of the current monthly low, which is statistically a very weak low.
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I do feel I must make a disclaimer here that this is NOT me saying you should ape into longs here.
I am positioned from macro bottoms, which obviously means the way I am approaching this is much different compared to someone who has no exposure.
Obviously this is not a place to ape into massive leveraged longs.
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Going live in 1 hour in the public @BrighterData Discord to go over Bitcoin PA and statistics!
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$BTC - Video Update
Recorded a longer video update where more in-depth into some important concepts in (data-driven) trading and build up towards my bias for the current month.
00:01 – Recap of last week's rare outcome
Recap of the bullish expectation based on weekly statistics and why the smallest bullish weekly candle in 3 years broke that expectation.
01:02 – How to properly play probabilities in trading
Explaining that even when low-probability events occur, the correct play is still to keep betting on the higher-probability outcomes over time.
02:21 – No 100% certainty in markets
Clar
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GateUser-4db32194vip:
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About 4.5 years ago I quit my 9-5 to try and make it for myself.
I had worked for 2 years after uni and had saved up enough money to last between 9-12 months, and figured that would have to do.
I was 28 at the time, and I realized I had a window of opportunity that was closing on me. The risk becomes greater as the years and responsibilities accumulate.
So when I get told I took a big risk (heard that a lot), I would argue that depends on how you look at the risk.
The risk of trying was this: running out of money, and ending up stuck in a worse job.
This is the risk that might instill enough
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A 31 year-old husband and father of 2. Absolutely heartbreaking.
Rest in peace, Charlie Kirk.
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