MarketWhisper

Kalshi CEO Mansour supports Representative Torres' bill to ban federal officials from betting on prediction markets. Publicly clarifies no relation to "offshore unregulated" platforms, implying insider trading within Polymarket. Polymarket account bets on Maduro's ousting profit by 400,000. In December, Kalshi's trading volume reached 6.26 billion, surpassing Polymarket's 2.28 billion.

Investors estimate a 31% chance of a stock market crash by 2026, but the options market is only pricing in 8%. Historically, such events occur every 10 to 12.5 years, and the last one was less than 6 years ago. The pain index is rising, and stock valuations are at historical highs, so the probability of a crash may be underestimated.

The Benner Cycle, a 150-year-old tool, predicts 2026 market peak after calling the Great Depression, Internet bubble, and COVID crash. However, trader Peter Brandt dismisses it as "fantasy" while JPMorgan raises 2025 recession probability to 60%.

Oklo stock surged 650% in 2025 before crashing 50% in Q4. The company specializes in small modular reactors for AI data centers, reported Q3 EPS of -$0.20 (vs. -$0.13 estimates), and holds $1.2B cash. Nineteen analysts average $108.56 target (13.6% upside), with bulls seeing $175 (84% upside).

Berkshire's incoming CEO Greg Abel will earn $25M annually—250x Warren Buffett's $100K. Abel will manage $382B cash and $283B stock portfolio as Buffett, 95, steps down in January but remains chairman.

Ryan Cohen purchased 4,710 bitcoins or GameStop in May 2025, making it the 14th largest corporate holder. The CEO who turned GameStop from $2.15B losses to $131M profit disclosed it quietly via SEC filing. Ryan Cohen funded the buy through convertible bonds, maintaining $4B+ cash as strategic hedge.

As on-chain activity surges, global cryptocurrency investors are facing increasingly severe tax reporting challenges. Although tax regulations from agencies like the IRS are clear, the cost accounting for transactions across multiple platforms and chains remains a challenge for high-frequency traders. Meanwhile, 48 jurisdictions worldwide have officially implemented the Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) starting January 1, 2026, marking a new phase in the automatic exchange of global crypto tax information. This regulatory upgrade not only fills long-standing tax loopholes but also exposes a significant gap between regulatory expectations and investors' actual compliance capabilities. High-volume traders may face the risk of overpaying thousands of dollars in taxes due to the inability to calculate precisely.

The XRP ecosystem recently made significant progress: Flare Network's cross-chain asset FXRP officially launched on the high-performance derivatives protocol Hyperliquid, marking the first time XRP spot trading based on an order book model has been realized, opening a new door for XRP into the decentralized finance (DeFi) world. However, on the other hand, the competitive landscape for XRP spot ETFs has changed. Morgan Stanley submitted applications for BTC and SOL ETFs but did not include XRP, and WisdomTree withdrew its XRP ETF application, putting market sentiment under pressure and causing the price to fall back to around $2.1653.
Analysts believe that in the short term, the price is affected by ETF news, but the key review of the US "Market Structure Act" on January 15, sustained strong inflows into XRP ETFs, and substantial expansion of DeFi use cases together form the multiple narrative foundation for XRP to challenge the all-time high of $3.66 in 2026.

AI Village places top models in a shared environment to observe emergent behaviors. Claude is steady and reliable, Gemini 2.5 Pro switches frequently like over-caffeinated and paranoid, GPT-4o often pauses without reason. GPT-5.2 achieves an accuracy of 98.7%, with hallucination rates down by 30%, but completely ignores greetings and jumps straight to work, with extreme efficiency leading to social alienation.

Sei warns USDC.n holders must exchange for native USDC before the March SIP-3 upgrade, otherwise they risk losing value. USDC.n is bridged via Noble, with a value of $1.4 million. After the upgrade, Sei will transition to EVM and abandon Cosmos. For small amounts, use DragonSwap or Symphony; for large amounts, use the Brr tool for batch processing.

Huang Renxun announced at CES that the "ChatGPT moment for Physical AI is coming soon." NVIDIA released the Vera Rubin platform with a 5x increase in computing power, open-sourced Alpamayo autonomous driving, Cosmos world model, and Groot robot. Emphasized that two platform migrations occurred simultaneously: AI redo applications and Physical AI redoing reality.

Trump orders the United States to withdraw from 66 international organizations, including 31 United Nations agencies and 35 non-UN organizations. The White House states that these organizations promote "radical climate policies and global governance ideas" that are against American interests. The organizations include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The United Nations faces a financial crisis due to the US withholding payments, resulting in a 7% budget cut and the elimination of 2,900 positions.

Hong Kong releases the Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) and revised CRS public consultation, launching "CRS 2.0". Virtual currency exchanges, brokers, and crypto ATMs are required to report user information to tax authorities. Violations can result in a maximum fine of HKD 100,000, and failure to conduct due diligence will be fined HKD 1,000 per account. Since implementing CRS in 2018, Hong Kong's CARF will end the gray area of crypto assets.

WisdomTree withdraws its spot XRP ETF application under SEC Rule 477, citing a current decision not to proceed with the issuance. The filing was submitted in December 2024 and no shares have been sold. The remaining four issuers in the XRP ETF market have received a net inflow of $1.25 billion since November. Canary, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale will have exclusive access to the market.

During the 2026 New Year's period, market maker Wintermute deposited a net of 2654 BTC into the exchange during the thinnest liquidity period, choosing late-night hours in Europe and America when liquidity was truly vacuumed, causing Bitcoin to drop from 92,000 to 88,000. The community questioned market manipulation, but the CEO claimed it was inventory management. Wintermute has been involved in continuous controversies recently, transferring 700 million before the liquidation in October 2025.

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan recently issued a memo stating that for the cryptocurrency market to regain momentum and challenge all-time highs in 2026, it must successfully overcome three key obstacles. These three catalysts include: the market needs to remain stable and avoid a repeat of the sharp liquidation event on October 10, 2025; the US stock market must stay steady to prevent a deep correction from dragging down risk assets; and the US Senate needs to push through the critical Clarity Act to provide a clear regulatory framework for the industry.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90,866, with the total market capitalization rebounding to $3.3 trillion. Analysts believe that the short-term trend will be driven by events and fluctuate accordingly, but the sustained inflow of institutional funds and clearer regulations in the medium to long term are the core drivers laying the foundation for a bull market.

XRP today fell below $2.2, down 5.97%. Morgan Stanley submitted ETFs for BTC and SOL but skipped XRP, and WisdomTree withdrew its application, signaling institutional disinterest and a blow to confidence. On January 15, the Senate's Market Structure Act review will be crucial, with the goal to hold the $2.0 support and a mid-term target of $3.0.

Blackstone Group's stock price plummeted 9% in a single day, with a market value evaporating $17 billion. Trump announced a ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes, and within 5 minutes of the announcement, Blackstone's stock price dropped sharply. The median age of first-time homebuyers in the US surged to a record 40 years old. Although institutions account for only 3% of the homebuying market, the housing affordability crisis has become a core political issue.

Yili Hua re-entered a position in November last year, purchasing 626,000 ETH (average price 3105) with 2 billion USD, already breaking even with a profit of 2.7%. Out of 6 trades, 5 are profitable, with a hit rate of 83.3%. BCH increased by 19.6%, WLFI rose by 15.46%, while ASTER dropped by 53.54%, resulting in a cut. Strongly supporting WLFI, predicting that the USD1 stablecoin will break 100 billion in the near term, 1.1 trillion in the medium term, and hold a 1 trillion share in the long term.

The CEO of US cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, rarely defends China's digital renminbi interest policy on social media, calling it a "competitive advantage," and using it as an example to urge the US not to restrict yield sharing in stablecoin regulation.
This statement immediately sparked intense debate among US and Chinese analysts, focusing on the fundamental differences between digital renminbi and private stablecoins. The true background of Armstrong's move is that the US banking industry is launching a fierce lobbying effort to overturn the key provision in the GENIUS Act that allows platforms to share earnings with stablecoin holders. This battle concerns the stability of up to $6.6 trillion in bank deposits.