Jukov

💭 Market thoughts
$BTC still looks solid.
PA has become pretty straightforward to read:
when we see strong net ETF inflows and long-term holders reduce meaningful selling, we get upside.
If either of those breaks, we get chop or downside.
Over the past week, large OG sellers have clearly dialed back sell pressure, and since yesterday we’re seeing renewed, sizable ETF inflows. At the same time, price has reclaimed the lower edge of the cloud, with technicals looking as constructive as they have since October:
I’m getting a lot of questions about which alts I’m long besides $XMR and honestly, s

Rare bullish macro post.
No idea if we get it, but for now US10Y look like they want to go lower. Losing the 4% level could lead to re-pricing of rate cut probabilities and more risk-appetite and therefore to a little...
- should I really say it? -
...altszn

Sold it all and went into my vacation in a bad mood.
Then I took a step back and realized something important:
I’ve reached every single goal I had one year ago and even overshot all of them. But it didn’t feel like it… I couldve done more. Always. But lacked motivation and became „lazy“.
Being content with yourself is just as important as being driven to survive in this market.
If you don’t use calm, choppy periods to replenish your dopamine, your nervous system, and your overall well-being, you won’t be able to perform at your highest level when the time is right.
I’m actively forcing myself

Decoupling or foreshadowing

⚪️Nock, nock... Supply shock?
Right now, we're so early on $NOCK, that in this phase blocks are coming in every ~4 minutes instead of 10 - meaning emissions temporarily have spiked to around 12–14M $NOCK per day (vs the usual 4.8M).
But in not even ~2.5 days, mining difficulty will jump 2.5x, slowing block production back to normal levels; right before the Halving hits 7 days later...
So within the next 10 days, daily emissions will drop so sharply that we'll effectively see a 5x supply reduction (12-14m => 2.4m).
Historically, every $BTC halving (2012 → 2016 → 2020) triggered multi-month pric

Powell announced the end of QT and the markets love it...
at least the Nasdaq, SPX, EUROSTOXX and Commodities like Gold or Rare Earths...
Not sure if $BTC didnt get the memo yet?