Jamesvanst
Open interest denominated in bitcoin went down during US market hours.
Shorts are covering not new leveraged longs being opened.
Shorts are covering not new leveraged longs being opened.
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Jamesvanst
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Bitcoin consolidated for around 53 days from the first capitulation wick in February to recovering in late April.
So far bitcoin has consolidated for 40 days since the November 21 bottom.
So far bitcoin has consolidated for 40 days since the November 21 bottom.
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BTC CME Futures opening price for the past 2 weeks.
I've very rarely seen anything like this before in btc
I've very rarely seen anything like this before in btc
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It seems we are approaching the end of the long-term holder selling and the miner capitulation.
That's huge headwinds being removed
That's huge headwinds being removed
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This is the best representation of long-term holders/OGs selling since the U.S. ETF launch.
(Due to options strategies and sufficient liquidity to absorb sell-pressure.)
All cohorts are below their the ETF launch percentages as a share of supply.
It seems the bulk of the downside is over and has now stabilised for all cohorts.
(Due to options strategies and sufficient liquidity to absorb sell-pressure.)
All cohorts are below their the ETF launch percentages as a share of supply.
It seems the bulk of the downside is over and has now stabilised for all cohorts.
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What's interesting about gold's volatility is that it had multiple 60%+ drawdowns before GLD launched in 2004.
Post-GLD, the highest was 40%.
Bitcoin has the same pattern: multiple 80%+ drawdowns, but since IBIT just under 40%.
Post-GLD, the highest was 40%.
Bitcoin has the same pattern: multiple 80%+ drawdowns, but since IBIT just under 40%.
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Coinbase premium almost hit a year-to-date low today.
Many U.S. funds are running a short pair trade using Bitcoin.
Many U.S. funds are running a short pair trade using Bitcoin.
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Alfie7:
Merry Christmas, let's get bullish! 🐂:The top is in for metals.
The question is how long until they make new highs.
The question is how long until they make new highs.
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Silver is less than 5% away from entering a "bear market".
This is why terms like “bear market” and “recession” are nonsense.
The world has evolved, but the majority of investors are still primitive in how they think about risk.
This is why terms like “bear market” and “recession” are nonsense.
The world has evolved, but the majority of investors are still primitive in how they think about risk.
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26k+ BTC increase in OI over the past 24 hours
Which is now down 8k BTC from the highs.
Which is now down 8k BTC from the highs.
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Bitcoin has now broken out of the 3-month downtrend line on the daily.
Time to retest the channel when the US opens.
Time to retest the channel when the US opens.
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Why is money so volatile
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Bitcoin bottomed in November a month before MSTR (December) in the 2022 bear market.
So far, Bitcoin has bottomed in November a month earlier than MSTR (December) in the 2025 bear market.
History repeating?
So far, Bitcoin has bottomed in November a month earlier than MSTR (December) in the 2025 bear market.
History repeating?
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All metals rallied after December 10, when the Fed decided to start QE.
So yes, the metals are saying it’s QE.
So yes, the metals are saying it’s QE.
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The last 3 times Bitcoin was $87K, this is the lowest open interest has been. Speculation at its lowest.
November 2024: 560k BTC
April 2025: 555k BTC
December 2025: 518k BTC
November 2024: 560k BTC
April 2025: 555k BTC
December 2025: 518k BTC
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It seems we are entering a period combining ISM expansion with metals topping and correcting.
This will drive huge rotation into growth and Bitcoin.
This will drive huge rotation into growth and Bitcoin.
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I'm hoping the end of the 10am NY slam comes to an end this week.
I think it was partly due to the October crash, where entities had to sell after being margin called (I think this is largely over).
Now it's EOY tax loss harvesting: most people are underwater if they bought BTC/IBIT. Investors sell assets at a loss to realize those losses and offset capital gains or taxable income.
While, at the start of the new year, institutions rebalance, deploy new capital as budgets reset, and realign portfolios. Eyes on Jan. 2.
I think it was partly due to the October crash, where entities had to sell after being margin called (I think this is largely over).
Now it's EOY tax loss harvesting: most people are underwater if they bought BTC/IBIT. Investors sell assets at a loss to realize those losses and offset capital gains or taxable income.
While, at the start of the new year, institutions rebalance, deploy new capital as budgets reset, and realign portfolios. Eyes on Jan. 2.
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More tin foil hat theory.
Morgan Stanley were among the main beneficiaries of the bitcoin correction through the structure of the IBIT note.
MS collects structuring and distribution fees at issuance. As prices fell, the probability of early autocall declined, extending the life of the note and allowing MS to earn additional carry and hedging related income.
The important part is: once IBIT fell more than roughly 25% and breached the downside barrier, losses were transferred to note holders.
From that point on, investors absorbed losses one for one as prices continued to fall. Further drawdow
Morgan Stanley were among the main beneficiaries of the bitcoin correction through the structure of the IBIT note.
MS collects structuring and distribution fees at issuance. As prices fell, the probability of early autocall declined, extending the life of the note and allowing MS to earn additional carry and hedging related income.
The important part is: once IBIT fell more than roughly 25% and breached the downside barrier, losses were transferred to note holders.
From that point on, investors absorbed losses one for one as prices continued to fall. Further drawdow
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If Bitcoin were doing what silver is currently doing, I would be 100% confident in a 70% drawdown.
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The best investments over the past 2 decades have been non-cash flowing assets.
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