IgnasDeFi

Shorting arrogance is one of the most reliable trades.
Crypto taught me this with Do Kwon, SBF, Avraham Eisenberg.
Every time someone acts untouchable, that rules don't apply to them, the market corrects them.
Works at the industry level too. When crypto natives get too confident, the top is in.
Starting to see the same trade in geopolitics.

Five crypto things I want to figure out:
- Is Nexo exposed to private credit, or are all their loans overcollateralized? Their rates feel too good for pure overcollateralized lending.
- If I use privacy protocols, do my wallets get flagged by Chainalysis? This matters because Source of Funds and Proof of Wealth audits usually rely on Chainalysis data. If flagged, I won't use them.
- Will Polymarket & Kalshi launch tokens, or go the IPO route? It's a critical test for token vs equity debate.
- What happens to stablecoin regulation if the CLARITY Act passes vs. fails? Right now I can't find a go

I was dumb to not check it myself.
Crypto is no longer listed under Prohibited Industries for paid promo on X.
The ban was there since at least June 2024. Now it's gone.
The policy page changed recently. On February 16th it was still there (Screenshot via Wayback machine).
The entire "financial products" category was removed. Loans, investment services, crypto. All of it.
Gambling was also removed. Weird.
Meanwhile they added pharma, tobacco, weapons, and weight loss to the list.
Crypto paid partnerships are allowed if you follow disclosure rules.
This matters for every KOL running paid promos

‘Paid partnership’ disclaimer should exclude the post from X creator revenue.

It’s short-sighted to ban ‘crypto’ as a whole category from paid posts.
I get potentially limiting ads for prediction markets, leverage trading, or even promoting yield products.
These are ‘financial products’.
Yet promoting crypto wallets, specific stablecoins, privacy protocols as infrastructure companies should be permissible.
I don’t believe things on CT regarding paid posts changes much unless X starts viciously banning KOLs.

BTC at 69k.
Nice.

Crypto KOLs pivoted to AI, boasting about how productive they are with OpenClaw.
Then where are your vibe coded smart contract apps? Or any other app?

No 1. PMF of crypto is making early believers rich.

What would it take for $ETH to switch to onchain governance?
Right now Ethereum governance is offchain:
Core devs propose EIPs, the community debates, and social consensus decides what gets implemented.
Staking gives you validator power and yield but zero say in protocol direction.
So currently even DeFi tokens like $UNI and $AAVE have more utility in governance than $ETH.
Vitalik opposes token voting for protocol governance as anyone with enough capital could buy 51% and capture governance.
But that's unlikely because the costs would be too great.
More importantly, Vitalik now pushes to 'ossi

One day, BlackRock buying $UNI and Apollo buying MORPHO will look like obvious key crypto turning point.
I say one day, because the market is underpricing these moves.
TradFi companies entering crypto not via ETFs but direct token acquisitions is a big deal.
They'll likely use tokens for governance allowing them to influence the rules of the infra they use.
This matters because 1) governance stops being a pure meme, and 2) it also brings institutional expertise to our onchain world.
Most importantly for our bags, it validates that tokens are finally investible.
I'm curious if it wasn't Blackro

The only way I'll make real money from Polymarket is the $POLY token.
I don't have an edge in sports betting or political events (no insider info).
I'm not confident enough to size up against rates traders or other economic data.
Arbitraging between Kalshi & Polymarket seems too late now to compete with MMs.
Hedging my crypto longs is the only trade that actually makes sense for me.
Thus airdrop with the highest multiplier for early adoptoooors is my biggest hope.
And, if that happens, trading the token itself is a game I'm willing to play.