# ratecut

95.7% Odds the Fed Holds in March — What Is the Market Really Signaling?
The probability that the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in March has surged to 95.7%. That’s not a small shift — that’s the market almost fully pricing in a pause. And when probabilities move this aggressively, it usually means expectations have hardened.
From where I’m sitting, this tells us something important. Just weeks ago, many traders were positioning for multiple cuts this year, expecting the Fed to pivot quickly. Now? The market is saying, “Not yet.” Inflation data, labor market resilience, and overall econom