Most people think bull markets and bear markets are random.

They usually are not.
The market follows EPS up and to the right in the long run.
When it gets stretched too far above the line — it snaps back.
When it gets stretched too far below the line — it snaps back up.
That is it. That is the whole game.
1999 — market was 24-25x PE.
Way above the line. Crashed 50%.
2022 — market stretched above the line.
Fell 35%.
Right now — market is a little above the line. Future returns will likely be below trend.
You do not have to call the exact top.
You do not have to call the exact bottom.
You just have to know when you are buying something cheap vs expensive.
When cheap — be greedy. Deploy capital. Sell puts. Buy calls.
When expensive — be cautious. De-risk. Keep powder dry.
That is the name of the game.