#劳动力市场 Seeing that the Dutch International Bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2026, my first reaction is not excitement, but caution.

Have you noticed that now the unemployment rate is low, the stock market is at historical highs, and inflation is still at 3%? Logically, the Fed has no reason to cut interest rates. But the banks have already started to lay the groundwork for rate cuts - citing things like falling energy prices, slowing rent growth, and weakening wage growth. In other words, they are creating public opinion for future easing policies.

What does this mean for the on-chain labor market? When wage growth begins to weaken and companies face cost pressures to lay off or cut salaries, many people are more likely to fall into anxiety. Anxious individuals are the most susceptible to being taken advantage of. I have seen too many "old leeks" rush to turn things around through "gold farming," "mining," and "financial schemes" after losing their jobs or experiencing salary cuts, only to accelerate their bankruptcy instead.

The key is that the expectation of interest rate cuts is itself a trap signal. When the easing cycle arrives, the market manipulators will be more rampant, as they know there will be short-term enthusiasm in the market. But you must remember that there are several months between macro expectations and their actual arrival, and this period is enough for them to wash the market, lure in buyers, and take a wave of profits.

The only way to live longer is to be more cautious under such great expectations. Don't be misled by interest rate cut expectations, and don't FOMO out of fear of missing out.