#市场观察 After looking at the latest liquidity data, I have to say a few honest words. The TGA account currently holds over 935 billion in cash, and this money has been directly withdrawn from the market. As long as the Treasury does not begin large-scale spending, the market will remain in a "water shortage" state.

What’s even more heartbreaking is that the RRP has been cleared to zero. Do you know what this means? The market has lost its buffer to cope with sudden shocks. The previous "backup reservoir" has now dried up. Coupled with the continuous decline in bank reserves, the dollar is still strongly guarding the 100 mark, and the appetite for credit risk is on a steady decline—this combination has resulted in the liquidity tightening red light flashing continually.

Anyone who has experienced several cycles understands that in this "water-scarce" environment, any slight disturbance can easily trigger a stampede. Assets that need high liquidity support, especially in severely affected areas, many seemingly hot projects are actually ruthlessly shuffled in this environment. Rather than chasing highs for speculation, it is better to focus on risk prevention – clearly assess the project's real cash flow and identify those pseudo-demand that rely on financing to "extend their lives." Surviving longer in this cycle is more valuable than surviving faster.