#美联储政策 The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision comes in the early hours of tonight, and the term "hawkish rate cut" sounds alarming. The reduction may be minimal, but what hits hardest is that Powell will emphasize that a significant deterioration in the job market is required for further cuts. What does this mean? The market's expectations for rate cuts are about to crumble.

I have seen too many people crash at the turning point of such policy shifts. Just two months ago, they were betting that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates all the way, and now they suddenly find the threshold has increased. I have seen too many instances of collective FOMO leading to a market sell-off. BTC, ETH, and SOL have been rising in the past few days, but don’t be misled by appearances—what's behind it is market sentiment being released, not a genuine improvement in fundamentals.

What’s even more eye-catching is that the tactics in the crypto space continue. PIPPIN surged 74% in a single day to reach a new high, and WET doubled right after its launch; these are all projects with market maker backgrounds. I learned a lesson from countless early cases of retail investors being cut: whenever there is policy uncertainty and market sentiment is high, the big players are the most active. They wait for retail investors to chase the highs, and then when a policy expectation falls through, they crash the market.

Hold on to your chips and don't be tempted by this short-term rebound. The Federal Reserve's stance will continue to influence the market for the next three to five months; real investment opportunities should be pursued when there is greater certainty. Living longer is much more important than doubling your money quickly.