#美联储政策 The interest rate cut has been announced, and US stocks have indeed risen slightly. However, I became alert when I saw that report from JPMorgan—they were very straightforward: the rate cut expectations have been fully priced in, and now is the time to take profits. This sounds familiar because I experienced this rhythm back in 2021.

What we really need to be wary of is not whether the Federal Reserve will continue to inject liquidity, but rather the current fragility of the market. Just look at the data from Bitfinex: the voluntary resignation rate has fallen to its lowest since 2020, while the layoff rate is nearing a three-year high, consumer credit card debt has surpassed $1.2 trillion, and the average interest rate exceeds 20%. This is not a signal of a strong economy; it is a warning that household finances are tightening.

Interest rate cuts can indeed support asset prices in the short term, but on such a basis, any slight disturbance can trigger a chain reaction. The lesson I have learned is: do not be deceived by the superficial friendliness of policies; one must also consider the real conditions of underlying consumers and businesses. The low oil prices and slowing wage growth mentioned by JPMorgan, while seemingly favorable, fundamentally reflect insufficient demand.

The current operating logic should be: it is much wiser to cautiously view the year-end rebound and lock in profits in advance rather than chase high prices. In an environment of high debt and weak employment, market fluctuations will only intensify, and greedy individuals are often the ones who get harvested the most thoroughly at this time.