#美联储降息 The Fed's interest rate cut is basically locked in, and the market has already priced it in, which looks like a Favourable Information signal. But I want to remind everyone—don't be dazzled by the surface "Liquidity release."

I have experienced too many scenes like this: when favourable information in the macro environment appears, everyone is excitedly chasing the rise, but as soon as Powell makes a statement change, or policy differences are exposed, it instantly becomes another story. This time is also worth being cautious.

You can see how outrageous this Fed meeting is - 5 members opposed or were skeptical about further easing in the FOMC vote, which is a level of disagreement not seen since 2019. In other words, the Fed is splitting internally, and the guidance on policy is more crucial than the rate cut itself. The "balance sheet expansion signal" that the market is blowing up is merely an expectation and may not be realized.

After Bitcoin returns to 80,000, it has indeed restored a bullish structure, but this precisely indicates that the market has already digested the favourable information in advance. The current question is—how much more upward space is there? Or is this the time to consolidate after the "pricing is complete"?

My advice is simple: enjoy the rebound, but don't let FOMO cloud your judgment. Set stop-losses and pay attention to every word of Powell's press conference. History tells me that real risks often hide in the most optimistic moments of the market.