#比特币价格目标 Seeing this analysis of the activity indicator rising, I need to calmly pour some cold water. Many people get excited when they see "historically usually represents a bull run", but the key issue is - an increase in activity ≠ a guaranteed rise in price, these are two different things.

I have experienced too many of these traps. High on-chain activity may simply be a matter of chips changing hands, and when large players are fleeing, activity can also surge. Technical indicators can mislead, especially when you're eager to find "reasons to hold on," your brain automatically filters out unfavorable signals.

What we should really be wary of is: rising activity but falling prices — what does this usually mean? It could either be smart money accumulating positions, or it could be that trapped positions are being cut. The difference between the two lies in the subsequent capital flow and changes in institutional holdings, not just looking at a single indicator.

Don't be misled by phrases like "the demand floor is support." I have seen too many projects claim that "the fundamentals haven't changed" only to see them plummet straight through the bottom. There is indeed spot demand, but demand ≠ price support, especially in a market lacking real application scenarios.

Stay vigilant. What you should focus on is institutional holdings, exchange outflows, and real trading volume, rather than being tied to a single indicator for judgment. An increase in activity can be a buying point, but it could also be an escape route. The difference lies in whether you truly understand what is happening behind the scenes.