#ETH Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation
Although there is a need for a rebound at present, we can still consider not acting on this rebound. Unless there is a clear signal of a counterattack on the 4-hour chart, we regard all rebounds as bull traps.

2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
On-chain Data (Core Bullish Factor): Exchange reserves hit a historic low. Data shows ETH reserves on centralized exchanges account for only about 8.7% of total supply, the lowest level since the network launched in 2015. This indicates ETH is being withdrawn from exchanges on a large scale, moving into staking, restaking, Layer2, and other “non-selling” states, sharply reducing potential selling pressure and tightening supply structure.
Exchange Dynamics: Breakouts accompanied by intense liquidations. In the past 24 hours, $90.31 million in ETH longs and $17.27 million in shorts were liquidated. This suggests that during the breakout, shorts were squeezed while leveraged longs chasing the rally were also heavily wiped out.
Technical Upgrade: The Fusaka upgrade completed last week continues to improve network efficiency, providing long-term fundamental support.

3️⃣ Intraday Trading Ideas
Long opportunities in the 2940-2908 range: If there are clear bullish candlestick signals in this area (such as a hammer, small-body consolidation followed by a bullish breakout), this can be seen as a relatively safe entry for long positions, with stop-loss set below 2908. If this level breaks down, watch for long opportunities in the 2800-2720 zone.

4️⃣ Risk Warning
False breakout risk: Pay attention to whether price can remain above 3240 this week. If it quickly falls back below this level, it may be a false breakout, triggering another round of decline.
High volatility persists: Although on-chain fundamentals are strong, leverage in the derivatives market remains high, so price swings around key levels may still be intense.
Market linkage risk: If BTC breaks downward, overall market sentiment will deteriorate, and ETH’s independent strength will be tested.