3 days of 4,000 #BTC selling pressure couldn’t break 90k. There were various fake orders guiding the market downward, and PCE data is coming soon. Today’s main battleground is 90k.

After checking in, things still seem pretty chaotic overall… have to take it step by step:

1. Yesterday, I observed a balanced state between longs and shorts on the order book, but starting last night, a new imbalance of selling pressure appeared on the order book (aggregated across the market). This imbalance has persisted up to now.

Looking at each exchange one by one, I found that this round of selling pressure mainly comes from Binance futures. But looking specifically at Binance futures’ historical order book, it turns out that most of this selling pressure actually comes from spoofing orders (fake orders).
So now there are signs that this wave of spoofing is guiding the market downward.
(Figure 1)

Combined with a round of weekly mini options that just expired a few hours ago today, with a notional value of over $3 billion and the max pain point at 91,000…
As I mentioned yesterday, 92k was still in a positive gamma region before today’s options expiry. After expiry, 92k could become a negative gamma zone.

Sure enough, right after these options expired (4 PM Beijing time), the market started dropping sharply… breaking 92k accelerated the drop (due to negative gamma effects).

All of this shows signs of mild manipulation.

2. Looking at spot, the main large sell order pressure is still above 94k, which hasn’t been tested yet. After hitting 90.9k earlier, a new batch of smaller orders appeared between 90.9k and 90k. On the downside, slightly larger buy orders are still temporarily clustered around 90k and 88k.
(Figure 2)

3. Looking overall from yesterday to today, although the market is forming a rounded top downtrend, spot CVD has been showing bullish divergence since the 2nd. (Figure 3)

You can see that since returning to 90k on the 2nd, major exchanges’ spot markets have been continuously selling off, and CVD has kept dropping. From the 2nd to now, net CVD has exceeded 4,000, meaning there’s been over 4,000 BTC in active selling pressure.

But the price hasn’t made a lower low (below 90k), indicating that there are still plenty of passive buy orders in this range.

However, this can’t be used as a guide for future price moves—it could mean spot is being distributed over a mid-term cycle after a rise, or that all of the selling pressure is being absorbed by passive buy orders, preventing a drop.
The next move depends on whether active selling or passive buying wins out.

So, overall, 90k remains the key battleground…

Below 90k means the price has made a new lower low and bullish divergence fails.
90k is also the weekly key level on Coinank (90.3k). I’ve been watching how this indicator leads.
90k is also the major gamma flip level for the massive options expiring on the 26th (below 90k, heavy negative gamma and rapid volatility acceleration).

So today, focus on the contest at 90k—will there be a front-running rebound, an SFP, or a breakdown that doesn’t recover? Failing to bounce back from 90k could quickly slide to around 88k.

Today, the key is to watch the 1-2 hours after the US stock market opens, and the subsequent PCE data release. There should be a resolution around 90k.