3 days, 4000 units. The selling pressure hasn't broken 90k, and there are all kinds of fake orders guiding the market downward. PCE data is coming soon, so today's main battleground is at 90k.

Got up to take a look, and overall things are quite chaotic... just have to analyze bit by bit:

1. Yesterday, I observed a balance between buy and sell orders on the order book, but starting last night, there was a new imbalance in selling pressure on the order book (aggregated from all platforms)... This imbalance has continued until now.

Looking at each exchange individually, I found that this wave of selling pressure mainly comes from Binance contracts, but when looking specifically at Binance contract order history... it turns out that this wave is mostly from spoofing orders (fake orders). So there are signs that this spoofing is guiding the market downward.
(Figure 1)

Combined with the small options that just expired a few hours ago today, with a notional value of over 3 billion, the max pain point is at 91,000...
As mentioned yesterday, 92k was still a positive gamma area under the influence of today's expiring options... After expiry, 92k could become a negative gamma zone.

Sure enough, right after these options expired (around 4pm Beijing time), the price started to drop... Breaking 92k accelerated the fall (negative gamma effect).

All of this shows signs of minor manipulation...

2. Looking at spot, the large sell order pressure still remains above the untested 94k area... Below, after previously probing 90.9k, a new batch of small orders appeared between 90.9k and 90k... The only slightly larger buy orders are temporarily around 90k and 88k...
(Figure 2)

3. Looking at the overall situation from yesterday to today, although the trend is forming a rounded top downward... the overall spot CVD since the 2nd has shown a bullish divergence for now...
(Figure 3)

From the 2nd, when price returned to 90k, major exchanges' spot has been consistently selling off, and CVD has kept going down... From the 2nd until now, net CVD has exceeded 4000... That means more than 4000 BTC in active selling pressure...

But the price hasn't made a lower low (90k), indicating that there are a lot of passive buy orders in this range as well...

However, this can't be used to predict future price direction. It could mean that after moving up, there has been a medium-term spot distribution, or it could mean all the selling pressure has been absorbed by passive buy orders and hasn't broken down...
What happens next depends on whether active selling or passive buying prevails...

So, overall, 90k is still the key battleground...

Below 90k means the price has made a lower low, and bullish divergence is invalidated.
90k is also the key weekly level on coinank (90.3k). I've been watching the indicator's guidance lately...
90k is also the major gamma flip point for the huge option expiry on the 26th (below 90k, big negative gamma and accelerated volatility begins)

So today, it's all about watching the battle at 90k... Will there be a frontrun rebound, an SFP, or a breakdown with no recovery... If 90k can't be reclaimed, it could quickly slide to around 88k.

So the key is to watch the 1-2 hours after the US stock market opens, and the upcoming PCE data... There should be an answer at 90k today.