Daily Analysis of #ETH

1️⃣ Structure Interpretation of ETH's Trend "Dual Breakout of Technical and Capital Aspects". The price has dropped to around 2700, and I currently lean towards a bearish trend. Next, we need to pay attention to whether the price will first reach around 3000 or go down to around 2500. The current range is about 400-500 points. The space is still quite good. We need to grasp the market rhythm well and not be influenced by the fundamentals. We only follow the technical aspects.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
On-chain data (continuing bearish): Significant whale selling behavior. Multiple on-chain monitors indicate that a whale address deposited 10,176 ETH to Kraken in the past few hours. This continues the trend of a well-known address that has cumulatively sold over 25,000 ETH since the end of October. This ongoing and large-scale transfer to exchanges typically signals potential selling pressure. Market Structure: Technical analysis shows that the ETH price is below all key moving averages, with every rebound attempt being suppressed, and the bears completely control the short-term trend.
3️⃣ The intraday trading strategy is to treat rebounds as opportunities to reduce long positions or to short. Before regaining and stabilizing above $2960, all upward movements should be viewed with a shorting perspective. Personally, I believe the best shorting position for Ethereum is near $2960, while aggressive traders can consider entering around $2850. It's important to pay attention to the potential golden cross that may form in the 1-hour chart.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Leading Risk Drag: The cryptocurrency market is dominated by BTC. If the support from BTC whales fails and the price drops again, ETH will face greater downward pressure. Independent Selling Pressure Risk: The on-chain data of ETH's own whale sell-offs is an additional bearish factor independent of BTC, which may lead to its decline being persistently greater than that of BTC. Ecological Confidence Risk: A prolonged weakness may affect market confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem and the level of capital participation in the short term.