Daily Analysis of #BTC

1️⃣ Structural interpretation of the oversold recovery market after macro shocks. The sharp decline yesterday was due to the Bank of Japan signaling interest rate hikes, triggering a surge in global government bond yields and indiscriminate selling of risk assets. Current prices have fallen to a key support area. Focus on the overall trend in this range.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics On-chain Data (Core Divergence Point): The data reveals a significant divergence in the market. On one hand is the "greed" of the whales: on-chain data shows a notable increase in the number of "whale" wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC after Bitcoin fell below $100,000, indicating that the largest holders are actively accumulating during the downturn. On the other hand is the market's "fear": this coincides exactly with the panic selling by retail investors (leading to liquidations) and the deterioration of the macro environment. Exchange Dynamics: Binance recorded a net inflow of 166 million USDT, which may indicate that funds are preparing to seek opportunities after the market panic.
3️⃣ The intraday trading strategy focuses on oversold rebounds, but one should not be blindly optimistic. Whale behavior is a positive signal, but under the macro clouds, the market is unlikely to immediately reverse in a V-shape. The current price is rebounding around 84000, and the current trend is still not very clear. Today, our main strategy is still on the bearish side. My target price is around 89000, and if it reaches this level, I believe it's still necessary to take action. Next, pay attention to the potential golden cross that may form within the hour.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Macro Chain Reaction Risk: If the Bank of Japan really starts raising interest rates, it could trigger a global wave of arbitrage liquidations, continuously suppressing high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Emotional Volatility Risk: Nearly $1 billion in liquidation orders show that market leverage has not yet cleared, and any fluctuations could trigger a new round of double kills for both bulls and bears. "Whale Trap" Risk: Increased holdings by whales is a positive signal, but it does not guarantee an immediate price increase. If the macro environment continues to deteriorate, whales may also turn to a wait-and-see approach or sell, leading to a failure of support.