Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Middle East conflict turned for the better after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with market risk sentiment recovering. U.S. stock index futures jumped sharply. Bitcoin broke through the $72,000 high, while oil prices plunged. Although the current rebound is significant, analysts warn that uncertainty around how the ceasefire agreement will be carried out and the overall economic pressure may still limit how long the rally can last.

On April 10, analyst Yu Jin reported that a giant whale established a $74.47 million crude oil short position on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized gain of about $1.2 million. It consists of 399k barrels of WTI crude oil and 390k barrels of Brent crude oil.

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.

Bitcoin’s official rise today reached $71,800, mainly because Israel and Lebanon have begun direct negotiations, reducing market concerns about an Iran ceasefire agreement. In addition, a weaker US dollar and continued buying by institutional investors also pushed prices higher. On the technical side, Bitcoin’s key support levels are $68,500 to $70,000. A break above $76,000 to $78,000 could prompt another test of $80,000 to $85,000.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COTTON (Cotton) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

April 10, gold and silver prices fell slightly, trading at $4,758.37 per ounce and $75.165 per ounce, respectively. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIX) dropped to 44.36, and in the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rose against the offshore yuan and the Japanese yen. Major European stock indexes generally declined, while WTI and Brent crude oil rose slightly. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial market products.

Recent U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index data shows that price pressure has continued, and the market is focusing on the upcoming March CPI figures. Geopolitical conflicts are driving energy prices higher, raising concerns about a rebound in inflation, with stagnant inflation becoming the focus. Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell does not agree with this label, the impact on economic growth still needs to be closely watched.

The White House warns staff not to use their positions to bet in prediction markets, especially by engaging in unusual trading activity before policies suddenly change. Accounts that have already profited more than $600k through prediction have drawn criticism, and critics suspect that someone used insider information to profit. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the warning.

April 10, as European and Asian refineries competed for oil purchases, the price of North Sea crude surged to a record high. The spot price of Brent North Sea Forties crude was near $147 per barrel, exceeding the peak before the 2008 financial crisis, indicating signs of a shortage in the oil market.

On April 9, multiple energy infrastructure sites across Saudi Arabia were attacked, severely disrupting oil production and exports, with daily output reduced by about 1 million barrels. Several refineries were affected, lowering their capacity to export refined products. In addition, a fire at the Jaimah processing facilities disrupted LPG and LNG exports. The Ministry of Energy confirmed that one industrial security personnel has died, and some facilities have suspended operations.

Trump warned Iran not to charge tolls to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying the move violates an agreement. Despite both sides reaching a ceasefire, ship traffic remains sluggish. Economic disagreements over control of the strait could become a focus in U.S.-Iran negotiations, affecting the stability of the ceasefire.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to hold direct negotiations with Lebanon. This news boosts gains in the U.S. stock market’s S&P 500, while oil prices fall. Bitcoin’s price briefly rose to 73K; market sentiment improved slightly, but overall it has not fully rebounded. Trump urged Iran to stop its attacks to facilitate negotiations, but shipping through the strait has not improved yet.

Gate News message, on April 9, tonight April 10, the U.S. CPI data will be released. The market is focused on the impact of the “Iran premium” driven by the surge in oil prices. In the bond market, traders have increased their positions in options betting on upside in the 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. A JPMorgan Chase survey shows that currently, net long sentiment in the spot market has fallen to a three-week low. In the macro backdrop, the cumulative gain in Brent crude oil this year is already close to 60%. For interest-rate expectations, the probability the market is pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut once in 2026 is about 30%.

Gate News message. On April 9, according to information released on April 10, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takashi announced that starting in early May, it will release 20 days’ worth of oil reserves.

After the ceasefire, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been restricted by Iran to about 12 ships per day, and it has also been forced to collect transit fees, reforming it into new control rules. This makes the global energy market unstable and could potentially drive oil prices soaring. Through this move, Iran has cemented its wartime control, and there has been no sign of any change in the U.S. side’s intention to carry out military intervention, shocking and unsettling neighboring countries.

Gate News update, on April 9, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast due to the war in Iran.

Gate News message: On April 9, according to Arkham monitoring, the whale address “0x63c” had a crude oil short position with a position value that at one point reached as high as $30 million on Hyperliquid. Because the crude oil market funding rate is negative, the address can currently earn $388,000 per day in funding fee income, translating to an annualized funding fee income of up to $142 million. However, due to crude oil price fluctuations, the whale is currently down $2 million in unrealized losses.

Gate News message, April 9, according to market data, WTI crude oil futures (West Texas Intermediate) were up 6.00% intraday, trading at $100.08 per barrel.

Multiple European financial institutions predict that international oil prices will be difficult to fall back to pre–U.S.-Iran conflict levels in the short term; attention should be paid to the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East infrastructure. Although ceasefire news has eased concerns about supply, oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the future.

After the Iran–Israel ceasefire, Bitcoin and gold both rose in sync before pulling back. From the perspective of geopolitical chess, we break down the deeper logic behind the price moves and the outlook that follows.