Recently, the actions focused on the global markets are quite interesting. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East directly pushed energy prices higher, with WTI crude oil soaring above $82, hitting a new high in over a year. However, Trump later stated he would work to ease the oil price pressure, and crude oil ultimately gave back its gains, closing up only 3.63%, unable to break through the $80 level. But the underlying issues reflected here are even more worth paying attention to—if the conflict continues to escalate, the rise in energy costs combined with economic slowdown could make inflation pressures much more complicated.

Federal Reserve official Barkin’s recent remarks are quite representative. He straightforwardly said that the Fed’s rate cuts last year were based on the judgment that employment risks were rising and inflation was falling, but recent data over the past few months has reversed that. The inflationary pressure from rising gasoline prices, along with still-strong employment data, has changed the Fed’s risk assessment. Next week’s PCE data release will more clearly reflect this. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen for four consecutive days, and market concerns about inflation and Fed policy are growing stronger.

The market’s reaction is very clear. The three major U.S. stock indices generally declined: Dow down 1.61%, S&P down 0.56%, Nasdaq down 0.26%. Europe also weakened across the board, with German, French, and UK stocks falling 1.61%, 1.49%, and 1.45%, respectively. The crypto market was no exception; Bitcoin briefly retraced from over $70,000 to $70,654, a nearly 4% drop. Interestingly, cybersecurity stocks performed well, with Okta up 11% and CrowdStrike up over 4%, indicating the market is seeking safe-haven assets.

Speaking of safe-haven assets, gold’s recent performance is also worth pondering. Gold fell 1.1%, trading around $5,084. One question is, who should not wear gold? This actually relates to gold’s investment properties. As a safe-haven asset, gold is usually sought during geopolitical escalations, but when the market expects interest rates to rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases. For investors relying on cash flow returns and sensitive to interest rates, gold’s attractiveness diminishes. Especially in an environment where inflation expectations are uncertain and central bank policies are ambiguous, the correlation between gold and stocks can become complex.

On the macro level, there are several other trends worth paying attention to. The Trump administration is pushing forward a new round of tariffs, but it has already been sued jointly by multiple states. Meanwhile, the U.S. is considering establishing new regulations on AI chip exports; foreign buyers will need to invest in AI data centers in the U.S. before purchasing large quantities of chips. These policy changes are reshaping the global trade and technology landscape.

At the corporate level, Berkshire Hathaway has resumed stock buybacks, signaling confidence with Warren Buffett holding $373.3 billion in cash. OpenAI released GPT-5.4 and Pro versions, accelerating the AI arms race. Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs to support the expansion of AI data centers. All these reflect the current tense situation in the tech and capital markets.

The current market environment is indeed complex. Geopolitical conflicts push energy costs higher, central banks face the dilemma of inflation versus employment, and stock markets are digesting these variables. In this context, choosing asset allocations, deciding when to hold gold, and when to shift to other investment products all depend on one’s risk tolerance and time horizon. Recently, I’ve also been monitoring some related crypto assets and commodity derivatives on Gate to see if there are opportunities.