From Policy Battles to Shaken Market Confidence: Why Is the Crypto Market Down Today?

Market Overview: Bitcoin breaks through the $101,000 mark

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is approximately $101,900, with a daily fall of over 1.5%. Ethereum has similarly dropped to $2,450, with a market cap shrinkage of over 3% in the last 24 hours. This is the largest single-day correction the market has experienced since mid-May.

Multiple mainstream cryptocurrencies have experienced a simultaneous fall, and the DeFi and NFT sectors have not been spared. CoinGlass data shows that over $120 million in liquidations have occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with short positions dominating the market.

Political risks escalate: Musk publicly questions Trump’s motives for supporting encryption.

One of the triggers for the market turmoil was Musk’s intense questioning of Trump’s and his team’s encryption policy on social media on June 6. He stated that the encryption industry should not be a “political speculation tool” and should maintain independence and transparency.

These remarks come at a time when Trump is intensively courting encryption supporters, leaving investors who originally hoped for a loosening of policies in a state of hesitation. The “uncertainty” of encryption policies has been magnified again, leading to a sharp downturn in market sentiment.

Macroeconomic factors: The Federal Reserve’s policy expectations are unclear.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on June 13. Despite easing inflation data, the slowdown in non-farm employment growth, coupled with Trump’s call for “immediate rate cuts,” has instead plunged the market into a quagmire of policy direction uncertainty.

Once the expectations of interest rate cuts are overdrawn, even the possibility of a reverse tightening policy will put greater downward pressure on the crypto market. In the current phase, funds are mostly choosing to withdraw from high-risk assets and wait for clear signals from the Federal Reserve.

ETF benefits have dulled, and incremental funds are on the sidelines.

Although the SEC approved multiple Ethereum spot ETFs this week, the market reaction has been lukewarm. Data shows that the funds flowing into the related ETFs in the first two days after listing were less than $500 million, far below the market’s previous expectation of $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

This reality reflects that the current crypto market has not truly recovered to the “incremental bull market” mode. Although institutions are laying out their strategies, retail investor enthusiasm is clearly insufficient, and the willingness for new funds to enter is weak.

Technical Analysis: Key support has been breached, and the risk of a short-term turn to bearish is increasing.

From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin’s key support level of 101,500 has been effectively broken, and it may test the strong support range of 98,000 to 99,000.

The continued low trading volume confirms that this round of decline is not a “shakeout”, but rather a signal of a trend weakening. Several on-chain data platforms (such as CryptoQuant) indicate that BTC exchange holdings have started to rise, suggesting that investors are choosing to transfer assets back to trading platforms in order to quickly respond to potential volatile fluctuations.

Investor sentiment: The confidence fall has begun.

The Fear & Greed Index has fallen from “Greed” to “Neutral” in the past 3 days, approaching the “Mild Fear” zone.

The discussion heat on social media has also sharply declined. According to LunarCrush data, the interaction rate of keywords like “bitcoin” and “crypto” has decreased by over 25%, suggesting a waning interest among retail investors.

In addition, the on-chain analysis tool Nansen shows that the net inflow of stablecoins into on-chain wallets has shrunk to a two-week low in the past three days, indicating that the willingness to allocate off-market capital is also decreasing.

Summary: Systematic bearish signals have not appeared, but adjustments may continue.

Overall, today’s fall in the crypto market is not due to a single major event, but rather a resonance of multiple factors - including the rivalry between Musk and Trump, unclear expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, rapid digestion of ETF benefits, and technical breakdowns.

Although we have not yet entered a systematic bear market, market confidence has clearly declined, and there is still room for adjustment in the short term. For ordinary investors, this is not the time to chase prices; one should remain calm, build positions in batches, and pay attention to macro dynamics and changes in market sentiment.