Is It Time To Rethink Amprius Technologies (AMPX) After Its 189% One-Year Surge?

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 18, 2026 at 2:11 PM GMT+9 4 min read

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AMPX

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If you are wondering whether Amprius Technologies at around US$9.77 still makes sense for your portfolio, the key question is how its current price lines up with the value of its business.

The stock has had a mixed ride recently, with a 15.4% decline over the past week and an 11.2% decline over the last 30 days, set against an 11.8% gain year to date and a 189.1% return over the past year.

Recent news coverage has focused on Amprius Technologies' position in advanced battery technology and its potential role in next generation applications. This helps explain why the stock has attracted increased attention and provides important context to the sharp moves in the share price over shorter time frames.

Our valuation checks give Amprius Technologies a score of 1 out of 6 for being undervalued. Next we will compare different valuation approaches and then circle back to an even more practical way to think about what the stock might be worth.

Amprius Technologies scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Amprius Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s value, aiming to estimate what the whole business might be worth right now.

For Amprius Technologies, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $50.53 million. Analyst and extrapolated forecasts then step this towards positive free cash flow, including projected free cash flow of $2.21 million in 2026 and $11.76 million in 2027, reaching $15.43 million in 2035. Simply Wall St only has direct analyst inputs for the nearer years, with later figures extrapolated from those earlier expectations.

After discounting these projected cash flows back to today, the DCF model suggests an intrinsic value of about $2.08 per share. Compared with the recent share price of around $9.77, this implies the stock is very expensive relative to this cash flow based estimate.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amprius Technologies may be overvalued by 369.7%. Discover 56 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

AMPX Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Amprius Technologies.

Story Continues  

Approach 2: Amprius Technologies Price vs Sales

For companies that are not yet profitable, the P/S multiple is often more useful than P/E because it compares the market value directly to current revenue rather than earnings that may still be negative.

In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk tend to justify a higher “normal” or “fair” P/S multiple, while slower growth and higher risk usually support a lower one.

Amprius Technologies currently trades on a P/S ratio of 21.83x. This is well above the Electrical industry average P/S of 2.51x and also above the peer group average of 15.87x. On those simple comparisons, the shares appear expensive relative to both the broader industry and closer peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is a proprietary P/S multiple of 2.62x that reflects factors such as the company’s growth profile, profit margin, industry, market cap and key risks. Because it adjusts for these fundamentals, it is intended to offer a more tailored yardstick than a basic peer or industry comparison.

Compared with this Fair Ratio of 2.62x, Amprius Technologies’ actual P/S of 21.83x is much higher. This indicates that the shares are pricing in significantly more optimism than the model supports.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:AMPX P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Amprius Technologies Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce Narratives. These are simple, user created stories that link your view of Amprius Technologies’ future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value to the current share price. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use them to compare different fair values, such as a more optimistic view around US$17.57 or US$18.00 and a more cautious view around US$10.00. You can see how those stack up against the live price and watch your Narrative update automatically as new earnings or news are added, so you always have a clear, numbers backed story to guide your own decisions.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Amprius Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:AMPX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include AMPX.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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